Is that censoring, or is that an LLM that doesn't actually know for sure and makes that clear, rather than making up something?
That response is exactly what I'd want from a LLM that was trained on data from the past and doesn't have upto date knowledge on something very specific in the future.
> so “what’s the weather lile in chicago today and forecast for tomorrow?” won’t work either?
I was able to make those queries work. I'm guessing hte difference is those are very common questions and openai has very specific workers to answer those queries with known oracles or sources of truth and the other is a local primary which is a query that is orders of magnitude less common and therefor has no specific oracle or worker specific to that query.
> There’s a strong chance the IPO window has passed
Ha, i'll take the other side of that bet. I'm not sure why you think they couldn't possibly IPO and you don't really specify why in your post.
Having been in the capital markets for 20 years, now is one of the better times to IPO and I'd bet that both OpenAI and Anthropic will IPO within 12 months.
There are lots of games you can play like releasing a small 10% float) if you are worried about not enough buyers.
I was in the capital markets during the COVID era, focusing on transactions for tech companies. I will take the bet that if OAI tries to IPO it will be WeWork 2.0 x100. Get ready for an even more creative version of “Community adjusted EBITDA”
On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO. Not only is a 10% float still absolutely massive, but the world is extremely unstable with the war in Iran and the US is in a recession when you factor out inflated growth driven by AI. Not to mention the Yen carry trade unwinding - there is so much loaded in the economy ready to blow up… I think the facade will collapse if OAI actually goes for it.
Umm the yen carry trade unwound in August of 2024. It hasn’t been a factor in the markets for over a year:)
> On the real though, I am not sure how a 20yr veteran can say this is the best time for an IPO.
The best time for an open AI and anthropic ipo. They are hot now, the macro environment doesn’t weigh into that calculus.
Also a 10% float isn’t massive, most companies ipo with anywhere from 20-40% of their total share count.
And being a 20 year veteran means you can cut through all the noise you mention and focuse in what matters. At all most all points in History there is doom and gloom, 20 years gives you the experience to know most of the doom and gloom never matters.
You go public when you get the chance.
I appreciate you comment and I hope I helped update your understanding of how things work!!
Oh, sorry I thought you meant the percentage would be huge.
Yes it’s a big ipo but early indications are that they’d be about 2x over subscribed if they ipo’d today from what the sell side is saying and I don’t doubt it from what other funds are saying.
Most fund managers have an IQ of 50. And they get paid by fees. They will put your pension money into OpenAI without a doubt, as it’s easier to participate, crash and shrug that stay out.
“Nobody got fired for hiring McKinsey” in the PE bros era.
There's a lot of reasons you don't want to IPO in the near- to mid-term, many based on energy suddenly being a lot more expensive than everybody thought and others based on money being a lot more expensive than everybody thought (and lenders being more risk-avers). All three of these things kind of go together.
Polymarket (for whatever it's worth) currently has OpenAI IPO at only 4% by end June and 40% by end December (and that's even for a small-float IPO as has become common).
The Venn diagram of people who have deep understanding of capital markets and people who like betting on stuff will have non-negligible overlap. Read some of the stories about Wall Street, especially from before it was all algorithms. Moreover, evidence of apparent insider trading on Polymarket, specifically for OpenAI, has already been shared on HN. Sounds pretty crazy to me to suggest that those odds can't tell us anything about the true probabilities. What's your reasoning?
Wisdom of the crowd, same as guessing jellybeans in a jar. The exact average is wrong, but it's still pretty damn close because the guesses are likely to follow a normal distribution.
If the hump of the normal distribution of these guesses is around 4% (or whatever) odds on, the actual answer is unlikely to be far from that.
> You can't reasonably draw any conclusion from betting without understanding who is betting and why.
Irrelevant; Polymarket is the reflection of the bettors view. When they place their bets, they don't care which way this goes, they only care to predict the direction correctly.
Unfortunately, it could be a case of the tail wagging the dog - even if the IPO would have been successful without polymarket existing, now that they have a signal from polymarket it is likely to be used as one of the weightings when they determine the correct time to IPO.
I checked Polymarket towards the end of February for the odds of US bombing Iran and they were vanishingly low. IIRC most bets were aiming for summer 2026. YMMV.
Wisdom of the crowd has some fatal flaws that are especially important when it comes to things like IPOs.
- Most significantly, most scientific research focuses on things that are actually amenable to guesses with a normal distribution, like "amount of jellybeans in a jar" or "length of the border between country A and country B". An IPO is a binary choice where it either goes public or not. There is no correct value to converge to.
- It has been shown that as bettors gain more information about the bets of others, predictions lose accuracy and bettors converge to a consensus value instead. It seems to me that online prediction markets would be extremely prone to this as the bets of other people are all there in the market price.
- Prediction markets generally become more accurate as the diversity of the bettor pool grows. The users of polymarket and Kalshi heavily skew towards young men from certain socioeconomic groups, who may be biased towards one or the other outcome.
In the case of an OpenAI IPO, it seems likely multiple of these would converge as people start to fall prey to groupthink because "everybody knows that they'll IPO soon" in their local media bubble.
The question isn't "will they IPO" the question is "when will they IPO" which is not a binary question. The rest of your point about Polymarket users now being mostly degenerate gamblers is true though.
The relative timing, valuations (and float sizes) of the expected SpaceX, Anthropic and then OpenAI IPOs would still be highly correlated. Even allowing for moral degeneracy among most of the gamblers on this particular Polymarket market.
It’s two binary questions about whether they will IPO by specific dates. It’s not obvious to me that this maps to a more granular “when will they IPO?” question.
> It has been shown that as bettors gain more information about the bets of others, predictions lose accuracy and bettors converge to a consensus value instead.
This makes intuitive sense to me; is there a name for this phenomenon?
A prediction platform’s biggest value is publicising information from possible insiders, who at some point will work harder to maintain secrecy not to lose their informational advantage. So all that remains are people gambling on public info.
That said, greed from insiders looking to make a quick buck will always skew the price towards ‘truth’
> An IPO is a binary choice where it either goes public or not. There is no correct value to converge to.
Of course there is - they are betting on the "when".
> It has been shown that as bettors gain more information about the bets of others, predictions lose accuracy and bettors converge to a consensus value instead.
I dunno how to reply to this - that is exactly my point, but it appears (to me, anyway) that you are saying this in disagreement?
Let me clarify - my point is that wisdom of the crowd converges on to a value that is quite near the actual value.
> In the case of an OpenAI IPO, it seems likely multiple of these would converge as people start to fall prey to groupthink because "everybody knows that they'll IPO soon" in their local media bubble.
Sure, if everyone is in the same local media bubble, that once again, that is unlikely, because these are people who don't make money from the result, they make money from correctly predicting it, hence they are exactly the demographic that will seek out more and more information outside of any bubble they may be in.
It's one thing when proponents of $FOO spend time boosting their PoV/wishes/hopes on a forum. It's quite another when they have to put their money where their mouth is: then they are open to new information!
> I dunno how to reply to this - that is exactly my point, but it appears (to me, anyway) that you are saying this in disagreement?
Yes. The research shows that they do (almost) always converge, but that they DON'T always converge to an accurate value. In particular, there can be behavioral biases at work that warp the perception of bettors in one direction or the other. A well documented case of this is when fans of a sports team pile in and bet for their favorite team, causing the price to shift too much towards the more popular team. Exposure to the predictions by other bettors then causes the total market to converge to the biased price. Interestingly enough, people still do this even though this phenomenon is well documented and they have to put their money on the line. People just don't care enough about their $10 bet to do thorough research.
In a similar way, I would not at all be surprised if some people are such fanboys of OpenAI that they start to display cultlike behavior. You can easily find such people online even on this very site. It's not such a weird thing to consider that people at the peak of a hype cycle don't always behave in rational ways, especially when they're just betting $10 when drunk on a Saturday evening.
if you can identify where and how prediction markets are wrong, why aren't you applying that and making millions?
> - Prediction markets generally become more accurate as the diversity of the bettor pool grows. The users of polymarket and Kalshi heavily skew towards young men from certain socioeconomic groups, who may be biased towards one or the other outcome.
Citation? If your small population is high IQ, accurate predictors and you diversify to average IQ population, won't the accuracy go down not up?
That Polymarket traders believe an OpenAI IPO this quarter, or even this year, is unlikely (or else almost all of them are hedging, e.g. long on other AI stocks. Which seems unlikely.)
Anyone who thinks that position is wrong and it's >4% likely has a clear profit opportunity.
It only has $1m volume, so even that conclusion is a bit of a stretch. By comparison NCAA tournament has $15m, and US confirms aliens this year has $18m.
100% agreed. There's so much locked up appetite for IPOs, both from the tech crowd and the general public. There have been very few quality IPOs since COVID frankly.
I'll wager that the IPO market can actually absorb all three of these that yes, are the size of the last 10 years combined. The trading market itself is larger, as are values, and valuations.
I assume that to maximize value you see a standard lock and roll play here. The S-1 will declare the 10% release, with commentary about future (6 or 12 months) another 5%. Plus don't forget institutional. There's ample space here, even before the Nasdaq 100 changes that are probably coming into play. If those come into play then inflows accelerated, as did valuations.
THere's interest to hold it for diversification reasons but the reality is investors are not stupid. Look at the basket-case recent IPOs: Figma and Klarna.
Many are skeptical of LLMs and how large of an impact they will have in the long-term. Nvidia's stock performance YTD is an example of that, despite the good news being pushed forward.
People want to start seeing customers of OAI, Nvidia et al start generating incremental accounting profits from LLM-specific projects, let alone economic profits.
Agreed. This year around is the best time for OpenAI related firm to IPO. The stock market has been resilient reaching and hovering around ATH. Along with them, SpaceX plans to IPO and will force index fund to purchase their shares at trillion dollar evaluation.
OpenAI and SpaceX firms need exit liquidity - and markets are ready!
My advise for retails folks is to stay invested in the market since these trillion dollar companies cannot afford market to tank at all.
I hope that commenter was being hyperbolic. I have heard of headphones making visible impressions or “dents” in the soft tissue and msucle after long periods of use (Google Tyler1 headphone dent if you don’t believe me), but such a dent would disappear within minutes or hours. An actual deformation of the skull due to headphone-wearing would definitely be strange.
at no point should your skull be deforming. Maybe the skin and fat layer ontop but the skull itself should not be deforming after an hour of hearing a device on a healthy individual.
How do you define a social media account? Some laws were including youtube in that list.
I can't see how preventing someone from watching youtube videos would be a net positive, but if you allow youtube whiteout an account then why not reddit, why not snapchat as that's how most kids i know communicate and organize their sporting events, etc.
This seems like I just read an advertisement. Or submarine article as PG would say.
AI studio is just another IDE like cursor so its a very odd choice to say one is bad and the other is the holy grail:)
But I guess this is what guerilla advertising is these days.
Just another random account with 8 karma points that just happens to post an article about how one IDE is bad and its almost identical cousin is the best
> AI studio is just another IDE like cursor so its a very odd choice to say one is bad and the other is the holy grail:)
Google does tend to have large contexts and sometimes reasonable prices for it. So if one of the main takeaway is load everything into context then I can certainly understand why author is a fan
lmao, per Occam's razor a much simpler explanation - I'm a grad student, so of course I'll spend more time exploring free tools, and it just happened that AI Studio with Gemini is really great.
if google wants to send a check, my email is open, lmao, but for now i'm optimizing for tokens per dollar
Ha, we had this conversation with our doctor and they said not to worry about the vaccine if you are married and monogamous. It would likely have zero benefit to us at that point in time.
Now maybe that changes if you get divorced and get a new sexual partner.
Probably to make sure it stays that way. Logistics by ship generally has a big advantage over logistics by land. There is a rough pattern over the last century or so of the big navel empires (UK, US, Japan) having a big military advantage. In the case of the UK and US their strategic policy has a big component that involves restricting their opponents access to resources water (eg, Germany around the world wars, China in the modern era or the way the US controls the sea-based routes out of Saudi Arabia and the land routes tend to be militarily unstable).
Preventing oil exports and increase insurance premiums for Russia's export economy, because Western sanctions clearly are unsuccessful in destroying the Russian economy.
My post history shows that I do support Russia's self defense against U.S./NATO threats. In my opinion Ukraine entering NATO is indeed an existential threat to Russia, because since (at least) the collapse of the UDSSR the U.S. and it's vassals openly communicated and pursued the goal of regime changing Russia (+ Belarus, Georgia).
It's always astonishing to me how people here (mostly Americans) basically know nothing about the long history of U.S. proxy wars with Russia (historically USSR) and the long stated desire from U.S. to destroy or regime change the Russian federation.
To answer your question quickly: Ukraine entering NATO constitutes an existential threat to Russia for the same reason as China building military infrastructure in Mexico, Cuba or Canada would pose an existential threat to the U.S. (e.g. Cuban Missile Crisis).
>Ukraine entering NATO constitutes an existential threat to Russia for the same reason as China building military infrastructure in Mexico, Cuba or Canada would pose an existential threat to the U.S. (e.g. Cuban Missile Crisis).
Funny you should mention that, Russian military infrastructure in Cuba wasn't an existential threat to USA. Russia did build military infrastructure in Cuba and the US let that happen. What they did not let happen was the forward positioning of nuclear missiles during the era that Fist Strikes were still being considered. Similarly the USA has removed nuclear weapons from Russia's periphery.
I think Chinese bases in Mexico would earn Mexico a good deal of stress, but not an invasion of conquest. Of course, Trump and Putin are busy changing international norms, and I can't speak to the potentially brutal world of the future. But the history (Cuban missile crisis) suggests that USA wouldn't engage in a self destructive invasion and conquest.
Is there any particular part of the report you think I should read? The glance I gave it looks like they suggested giving arms to Ukraine to stretch Russia in the civil war they were fomenting and supplying in Eastern Ukraine at the time.
Do you consider the Putin regime as equal to Russia? Because a lot of the threats in the document are to the authoritarian system, not to Russia itself.
Makes sense. Most kids I know put records up on their wall as art. or as a way to pay artists directly by purchasing their album at a concert
If you want to listen to music then Spotify runs circles around vinyl as a medium. Records really suck for music quality which is why everyone dumped them when tapes came along and then even more so when cd's became a thing.
If Vinyl was a good medium to listen to music then no one would have bought cd's or had a Spotify subscriptions.
I can't imagine people going back to old school crt televisions to watch sports or movies either, but I do see people
Minor nit, cassettes were and are mostly worse audio quality than records and they coexisted for decades with their respective compromises. Cassettes replaced 8-track in the portable space and eventually enabled the Walkman.
CD didn't really killed cassette. They coexisted peacefully for 2 decades. CD was nice, transportable but cassette was still more convenient to carry around because a walkman was much smaller[1], wouldn't skip when running/jumping[2], a cassette was less fragile and it was simply so much easier to leave a cassette in a deck and record anything you would ear on the radio on the go. Virtually nobody could/would live burn a dj mix from the radio.
Napster + portable mp3 player and smartphoned did kilómetros ll the cassette.
[1] especially the late 90's early 00's ones that were barely bigger than a standard cassette case.
[2] there was buffering for discmans but it wasn't 100% effective if skipping happened for longer than the buffer
I won't ever go back, but my teenage daughter wanted (and bought) a low-fi digital camera, "dad cam" videos are a common format, polaroid prints had a resurgence and I would not be surprised if we saw a retro tv/video movement. Go figure...
> You can buy a bigger and bigger house car tv stereo whatever, but it will not make you happy.
Hard disagree here.
Ask a 4 person family stuffed into a one bedroom condo if buying a larger 3 bedroom home would make them happier, I'd imagine to 99.99999% of them the answer is yes.
I upgraded my road bike 2 years ago from an entry level one to a nice racing bike and each weekend I ride a 100km route, that sure as heck makes me happier than riding the old slower and heavier bike.
We just took our extended family on a vacation for a week. Money sure as heck made us happier in that instance.
It is true that cash can't fix all issues in life but any one who says money can't make you happy is either lying or doesn't have money.
Run a simple thought experiment in your head. If you woke up tomorrow under crushing credit card and medical debt and it was suddenly paid off, would that make you happier?
That response is exactly what I'd want from a LLM that was trained on data from the past and doesn't have upto date knowledge on something very specific in the future.
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