But the effects aren't just financial, look in an ER. People who for one reason or another haven't been able to take care of themselves in the emergency room for things that aren't an emergency, and it means your standard of care is going to take a hit.
This is a doctor feeding the LLM a case scenario, which means the hard part of identifying relevant signal from the extremely noisy and highly subjective human patient is already done.
> The effect: Rent goes up to cover the tax and margin is added, so the rent goes up more than the tax.
Well-established effect and it applies to everything. A huge portion of all technological improvement/productivity gains and nearly all public investment money ultimately accrues to land rents which we then later just call "the cost of living."
You are right to call this out, and is why the legislation for this idea will require a lot of thought. But the important part of this idea is that only the "big" landlords will have a significant increase in cost.
In order for the economy to function there has to be ~ SOME ~ landlords. In my experience the random people that rent out their second property are usually good landlords, whereas the massive players treat people poorly. If this tax were implemented well, the latter group would be taxed more forcing them to stay honest. The small landlords would have a competitive pricing advantage over the big players, which should go a long ways to keep rents fair.
A landlord owns the property. Property managers operate the property. Sometimes these are the same people (in mom and pop scenarios), but typically and at scale they certainly are not.
Property management is a job. Landlording is not. It is simply owning an asset.
Landlords have to allocate capital to fixing and improving the house, as well as taking care of insurance and taxes. Also, assuming that they're not living in the house and the value of the home goes up, they're taxes will rise whenever an appraiser reassesses their home value.
All improvements are excluded from a land value tax, which actually means improvements are even more incentivized.
Yes that is correct if you occupy land while your community makes it more and more valuable, you should not get wealthier and wealthier for no reason. All of that should be taxed away.
So when you build a sewage farm on your back 40 you should get wealthier (while your neighbors thank you because their land tax went down), but if someone snaps a photo of your area that goes viral on {THE PLATFORM DU JOUR} thus making your county more popular and driving up a bidding war for postage stamp sized lots of land (leading to the land being valued at a higher rate than it was a year before) you suddenly have a massive tax bill because "we noticed you are living in a popular county" and the benefits of living in a popular place should be taxed away? Or do we need some kind of a standard for "more valuable" that deals only with tangible things? And if so, which tangibles?
> All improvements are excluded from a land value tax, which actually means improvements are even more incentivized.
I'm not sure what this applies to with regards to my original comment. Improvements, insurance, and taxes are capital expenditures which need to be managed. This was to counter that landlording "is simply owning an asset."
> Yes that is correct if you occupy land while your community makes it more and more valuable, you should not get wealthier and wealthier for no reason. All of that should be taxed away.
Why assume that the landlord isn't getting the brunt of the cost for making the community more valuable? I don't think there's a strong case for saying a property manager is a job while denying landlording being one. Assuming landlording is completely passive is as far-fetched as thinking that property management is completely passive (both may require irregularly tasks to be performed or require no involvement in the ideal case).
While we don't want to tax a landowber's capital investment and improvements, most of the land value is due to the agglomeration effect of the surrounding land. So land value is mostly not an individual owner's own work, but the sum total of the community's efforts and entrepenural spirits.
>but the sum total of the community's efforts and entrepenural spirits.
More like "was too rural or too poor in the 70s/80s/90s to indulge in the then trendy policy like zoning the crap out of themselves and passing a bunch of ordinances more akin to country club rules thereby making incremental growth and development actually possible in the 2010s and 2020s"
Because most development today seems to correlate with whether or not that particular policy bullet got dodged than culture or spirit or anything like that.
> Landlords have to allocate capital to fixing and improving the house, as well as taking care of insurance and taxes.
These costs aren’t that high though, compared to rent. 3 months of rent covers a year of property taxes where I live. Major repairs are about a couple months rent. There is still another half year of rent that’s pure profit. Then they raise your rent every year, demonize rent increase caps, and then vote for reduced housing builds. I find it very difficult to accept them. If I had the money and the capital I absolutely would own a dozen homes and rent it all out, you would make insane money. Not to mention the mortgage costs being so low during ZIRP days. At the rate of AI coming for SWE jobs, landlords seem untouchable.
> 3 months of rent covers a year of property taxes where I live. Major repairs are about a couple months rent. There is still another half year of rent that’s pure profit.
Fair. Mortgage during the ZIRP days and prior was really low though. A 3K mortgage then is like a 6-7K mortgage now. And home insurance is also relatively low, I pay like 1.5K for the whole year. Point is, it’s a great way to make money and that is why people become landlords.
> Point is, it’s a great way to make money and that is why people become landlords.
If it is, why not do it and become rich too?
It's not really a particularly good way to make money. I've run the numbers on hundreds of properties over the last two decades and I've yet to find a scenario where I could buy something and rent it out with enough profit to be worth the hassle. You'll be much better off investing in some index fund instead.
If I had the capital I absolutely would have. It’s a bit worse now but any property you bought pre-covid (at least in big cities) can be rented out for more than what mortgage costs. I remember looking at houses in the Bay Area and the monthly mortgage would be 3K while you can rent it out for 4-5K. Anyone who owned property in the 90s and early aughts are absolutely rolling in it. You can invest the profits in an index fund on top of it.
I bought a house in the Bay Area in the 90s and the mortgage was well over $3K (remember interest was over 7%) and an equal house back then was renting for $1300 (my rent at the time for a 3br house in south San Jose).
Try to run the numbers for any property you like. Remember to include taxes and insurance and maintenance. Just to break even is not easy and then you'll have to work for free on the maintenance. Or pay a rental management company, which is another 8-10% taken from the rent.
The landlord of most of the United States is the American people since American public pension plans are some of the largest holders in these funds that purchase single family homes.
People act as if this is due to 'private greed'. It's not. American public pension plans are underfunded and need more returns. Thus they turn to the private markets, who offer them that which they are seeking to purchase. The market is heavily distorted by these public players whose policy and aims are not constrained by the market but by public policy.
If you tax land the only thing you will end up with is higher rents. You are punishing the wrong people.
Want to punish the right people? Cut taxes so that people can save cash faster, afford houses earlier and stop renting from their landlords.
Build more actually-affordable housing, too. Not these blocks of luxury apartments with swimming pools that nobody uses. (See HDB, Singapore -- that’s what the US needs more of)
Land is taxed but improvements are not. That tax is not passed down because landlords are already charging the highest price they can.
The tax simply redirect the unearned income to the public coffer which are either spent on public investment that further increase land value or redistributed as citizen's dividend.
Meanwhile landlords are free to construct as many buildings as they can without being penalized by higher taxes.
Empty lot, parking lots, and self storage facilities would be penalized because they wouldn't generate enough income to cover taxes on land, leading to more efficient utilization of land, as improvements are no longer penalized.
> Empty lot, parking lots, and self storage facilities would be penalized because they wouldn't generate enough income to cover taxes on land, leading to more efficient utilization of land
Right, so the city would be nothing but luxury (to maximize income to pay those taxes) high rise apartments packed tight every block.
No parks, no playgrounds, no soccer fields, no sports courts, no bike trails, no dog parks... none of the things that make living in an area pleasant. Also, no low income housing. Because none of those maximize "efficiency" (measured only in dollars) of every square inch of land.
Life is not pleasant if maximizing value extraction is the one and only #1 criteria. This is what land value tax misses.
Incorrect. Parks and other amenities raise land value. They would be an investment by the city to raise land value in a given area. People do not want to live in soulless concrete jungle. They want to live in a society full of amenities such as theater, parks, train station, basketball courts, etc.
Also, "luxury" housing cause what economists called "filtering", in which new construction are occupied by the upper strata of income, which means they pay for the cost. As housing age, this naturally becomes more affordable to the lower strata. This of course, depend on sufficient housing stock. Otherwise the inverse will happen.
Also, you only need to cover the cost of paying the land value tax to keep it, not to generate the maximum amount of revenue for that plot of land.
We are not talking about value extraction here, but making sure that landowners work for their keep, while the unearned income/economic rent that would otherwise goes to them is returned to society, because the value of the land is largely determined by the agglomeration effect, the sum total of the community's effort and entrepreneurial spirit. Otherwise, your private effort as individuals would flow to landowners reaping the benefit of increased land value, hence appreciation in real estate price.
I am responding to the comment I quoted, namely: "parking lots, and self storage facilities would be penalized because they wouldn't generate enough income to cover taxes on land".
So if a LVT has the explicit goal of eliminating things like parking lots and self storage units because those don't generate enough income to pay for the taxes, then what hope do things like playgrounds and parks have to continue existing.. they generate far less income than a self storage facility.
Parks and playgrounds increase the land value of the surrounding community. That results in higher LVT.
That creates a virtuous cycle for the local government who is administering those taxpayer paid amenities, same as other form of infrastructure and amenities.
That feels like wishfull thinking. What I see around me in practice is government doing all they can to sell off public lots (like parks) to developers to tear down the park and build another luxury condo. More tax revenue, more money in the government pocket, some bribes under the table, another loss of quality of life in the neighborhood.
> Under the tax scheme described, the reverse is true.
Explain how.. In a dense urban area, with LVT, that lot that held a park will bring even larger tax revenue when the city sells it off to a developer. Having the tax be based on maximum potential usage will only increase the temptation to sell it off and remove yet another park from the people.
No, the real problem is that the vast majority of their income does not come from their role in creating supply or maintaining housing.
Proof: Propose a 100% land value tax, which definitionally only removes that part of income that is generated by the community around their property, and see if they go for it.
The actual value of a landlord is insulating the tenant from financial risk, charging a predictable rent and absorbing the costs of repairs and maintenance. That's a lot of value for some people, but it also comes with problematic incentives and obvious bad outcomes when combined with other aspects of housing markets.
In a perfect world, but rent is often less significantly predictable than mortgage payments. Of course the cost of repairs and maintenance isn’t absorbed, it is paid in full by the renter in the cost of rent.
Prices are high because we don't build enough houses which is mostly because it's really expensive to build houses, then the houses we have built are all owned by empty nesters and people with 1 - 3 investment properties.
Everything else you're describing is completely ridiculous.
> which is mostly because it's really expensive to build houses,
Assuming you're referring to the typical high CoL areas, the shortage has very little to do with the expense of building. The zoning laws don't permit sufficient supply in those areas. And that's quite unlikely to change (at least quickly) because anyone pushing such reform would be obliterating the average Joe's net worth.
> anyone pushing such reform would be obliterating the average Joe's net worth.
This what Obama calls the false choice dichotomy -- "Damned if you do, damned if you don't." In your scenario, if we build more homes, then existing home owners are "obliterated". This is untrue. We can easily build twice as much in high cost areas (with the strongest job markets) with little impact on existing home owners.
That doesn't really make sense. The problem we're trying to solve is that housing is too expensive. If we do things that end up lowering the cost of housing, then the saleable value of "average Joe's" house will also go down. You can't say that newly-built housing will be (for example) 20% less expensive, but existing housing will keep its value; that's just not how the housing market works.
I'm not sure if "obliterated" is the right word to use, but if making housing affordable means a 20% drop in home prices (which is perhaps not even enough in some places), average Joe existing homeowner is going to run into financial trouble once that happens.
> We can easily build twice as much in high cost areas (with the strongest job markets) with little impact on existing home owners.
If that's the case, then all that new housing will also cost more or less exactly the same as the existing housing stock costs, and the problem will not have been solved yet.
How do home owners get into trouble from falling prices if they're just living in their home?
Sure, if they need to move and sell, the price difference might be less favorable to them, but having to weigh cost vs benefit of moving is a fact of life one way or another.
It's a strange expectation to have that home values should act as an investment that can only ever go up.
Letting that expectation influence policy on making space for living available is one of the root causes of this crisis.
My feeling is because we build little in the way of new units of housing most places. All the money being injected into the real estate industry is from the price-debt spiral.
To be honest, just getting to the point where house prices don't rise above inflation, maybe even stay fixed (so inflation eats away at their value), would be a massive accomplishment. The main problem at the moment is prices keep rising above inflation in most places, year after year.
Also known as “housing cannot be both a good long-term investment and simultaneously remain affordable over a long period of time.”
Many people have been sold on the former and will (fairly understandably) act to protect the value of their single largest purchase which often has a large mortgage attached to it.
What I'm describing is a systemic dysfunction due to financial incentives.
The "crisis" is specifically the high cost of housing. So if whatever you do doesn't lower the price then by definition you've failed to solve the problem.
It's certainly a dichotomy but I don't see how it's false?
> We can easily build twice as much in high cost areas (with the strongest job markets) with little impact on existing home owners.
It's certainly possible to encounter nonlinear behavior. If some aspect has saturated then we might build quite a bit without seeing any substantial price movement. But eventually prices would start to decline.
In areas with low CoL the cost of building houses and the cost of selling a house has a massive impact on the number and type of homes that get built. If it's not profitable for a builder to build a home they simply won't, whether it's because of bureaucratic red tap or economic conditions. There's very strong incentives for builders to take the path of least resistance and highest margin.
> If it's not profitable for a builder to build a home they simply won't,
Agreed. They will generally build as tall and as dense as they are permitted to because (within reason) it reduces unit cost. Obviously there are limits to that. No one wants to build a high rise in the middle of nowhere.
But within high CoL areas they are generally severely limited on both of those aspects. That's due to zoning laws.
Of course that's not the whole story. Infrastructure has to be upgraded to keep pace with growth. But that's on the local government to plan and execute properly. Right now they largely just say "no".
The profit margin has to be significantly higher than simply plopping that cash straight into an index fund. The risk of a project failure is simply too high.
> If it's not profitable for a builder to build a home they simply won't, whether it's because of bureaucratic red tap or economic conditions.
Right, and that bureaucratic red tape is one of the things that makes the cost of building higher. If the builder expects they won't be able to break ground for two or three years because dealing with the planning commission takes forever, or because they'll have to deal with environmental lawsuits before they can build, then they will need to target higher-end buyers (by building a higher-end property) in order to make a profit. And if they can't do that... right, they simply won't.
The zoning laws are far from the only tool used by municipalities to dramatically reduce supply. Permitting, requiring expensive changes at various points in the process, local building boards requiring extraneous modifications and often forcing scope reductions, affordable housing requirements, etc all make building more expensive. Often by a very large amount.
I don't believe this has much impact on the current situation (relative to zoning) but would be interested to learn otherwise. Can you provide verifiable examples for any of it?
"drop" is doing a lot of work there; as these things are slow and take time, the "drop" is often a reduction in the rate of appreciation (which, everything else being the same, should roughly be equal inflation ± some fudge factor for desirability of the area).
> anyone pushing such reform would be obliterating the average Joe's net worth.
Only in a purely illusory sense. Suppose you have all your net worth tied up in a house. If your house magically vanished, you'd have nothing but your job.
The price of houses falls to $500 and you potentially go bankrupt. Then, you buy a house for $500.
You, personally, are now better off than you were before. Some examples:
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1. You have $200,000 of equity in a $700,000 house. After the price drop, your net worth in dollars has improved by $300,000. Your net worth in "stuff" has risen dramatically; you kept your job, and now you have 100% of a house instead of having 30% of a house.
2. You have $700,000 of equity in a $700,000 house. After the price drop, your net worth in dollars is down by $699,500. Your net worth in stuff is unchanged. Assuming you always need to live in a house, this will never have any negative impact on you. You retain the option to live in the house you have (which leaves your life unchanged), and you also retain the option to sell your house and use the proceeds to buy another house (and this option looks a lot better than it used to; given the crash in prices, you can probably afford a much nicer house).
3. You have $200,000 of equity in a $700,000 house. You also have $15,000 of "equity" (resale value) in a car that you owe no money on and bought for $50,000. After the price crash, you lose your house and your car, and then you buy another house for $500.
Replacing your car will cost you $50,000. You are in a similar position to the guy in example (1), but $50,000 poorer. So now we ask: was it better to be $500,000 in the hole on your house before, or to be $50,000 in the hole on your car now?
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There isn't a way for the average Joe not to come out ahead. There is a way for someone else to lose out on the price crash: if you had more than one house before, you lost everything on the houses you weren't living in. But that's got nothing to do with the average Joe.
You would still need to pay the bank the full 700k even if it's only worth 300k now. This might mean that you still owe 400k on a 300k asset. In this way you can be underwater while still being a 30% owner.
It does raise the point though that anyone who borrowed against his house to obtain other assets could be negatively affected by this turn of events.
Also in the case of mass bankruptcy and mortgage failure of the lower middle class I guess there would be risk of bank failure as in 08? That said, I still think the hypothetical illustrates the overall situation quite well.
> It does raise the point though that anyone who borrowed against his house to obtain other assets could be negatively affected by this turn of events.
How?
A drop in the price of houses means it becomes more difficult to exchange houses for non-houses.
If you borrow against your house to obtain something else, and then the price of houses falls, you successfully timed the market. That's all upside for you.
What do you think is the difference between example 3, the guy with a $500,000 mortgage on a $700,000 house, plus a $50,000 car, and example 3', the guy with a $450,000 mortgage and a $50,000 car loan on his house, plus a $50,000 car?
Say I inherit a $700,000 house and, being the kind of guy I am, immediately mortgage it for $500,000. But I stop renting and move in to my new house. Also, I hire a bunch of call girls to live with me in my house. One year later, the price of my house drops to $100,000, and I turn it over to the bank.
I started (the crash) with a $500,000 loan and no way to pay it back other than selling my house. At this point, the faster I realize what's happened and sell my house, the more money I'll be left with. (If I sell immediately, I'll get $200,000!) The longer I postpone selling, the worse off I'll become. (Though since I can live in the house, this trades off against what I would spend on rent.)
I've also spent $500,000 on entertainment and one year's rent. Mostly entertainment. Is this a harm that was dealt to me by the fall in the price of my house?
When the price falls, this forces me to sell the house, locking in a profit of... $500,000. (Which I've already spent.) It could have been $700,000, in theory. This $200k difference in profit vs potential profit can be seen as an effect of the price crash. But that's pretty good for an event that notionally took $600,000 out of the value of my house. Borrowing against the house helped me.
If you want to talk about a negative effect on someone, walk me through the accounting.
At the beginning of this process, I was short $700,000 for a house that I needed but didn't have.
Before the price crash, I had "200k equity"† in that very house, leaving me $500,000 short of a house.
After the price crash, I was deeply underwater on the house. Without bankruptcy, I was still $500,000 short of my house, but only $100,000 short of some other house.
And then, after the bankruptcy, I was $100,000 short of a house.
1. What is the harm that I suffered from the price crash?
2. If the "hookers" column had some other label, would that change the harm that I suffered from the price crash?
† You might note that this is accounted as 700k equity in the table. The table is correct, but that's not how we talk about it. There is probably an error in my earlier comment related to this.
> a $50,000 car loan on his house, plus a $50,000 car?
Well I suppose that guy might come out unscathed since many US states protect your primary vehicle in a bankruptcy. But to an approximation declaring bankruptcy involves losing all of your remaining assets. So in that scenario the borrower is on the hook for the cost of replacing those assets (limited by how far underwater they were on the mortgage naturally).
Your other example involved blowing the borrowed money on entertainment in which case I agree that you come out ahead. But that is precisely why I used the term "assets" in GP.
Also I don't think everyone just gets let off scot free after a bankruptcy? Don't you sometimes get stuck with some amount of repayment depending on the nature and volume of your income?
My question about bank failure also still stands. While the impacts of this hypothetical on personal finances are certainly interesting to consider, I'm thinking we really don't want to do the whole widespread mortgage default thing again.
That is an excellent way of putting it. However I fear that it will be nigh impossible to convince the average Joe that the numbers going down was actually good for him.
In the past tense it should be easy to do. Since he is better off, and he has a good view of how he's doing personally, you don't really need to do much. The difficulty is in convincing him that it will be good for him, not that it was good for him.
Compare congestion pricing in NYC, or self-service gas in Oregon.
that's a great paper, but did you read it? I don't see the authors reaching this conclusion. in fact, they seem pretty emphatic that restrictive zoning is a major driver of supply bottlenecks.
What’s funny about this is that I actually can’t. 2 examples:
For years, I’ve tried to buy only American-made denim. When the Cone Mills plant closed, I bought a bunch of dead stock jeans. There was one attempt since Cone Mills closed to open a new US denim factory, but it failed. Unless you’re buying whatever’s left of that increasingly rare stock, you can’t buy American-made denim.
Another example — I’m currently in the market for custom-formulated silicone and acrylic products. Every US manufacturer I’ve approached just sends an email that says “no we don’t do that”. I have like 5 Chinese suppliers on Alibaba trying to make a deal with me.
I would much rather source domestically as soon as someone tells me how to do it.
Sure there is a (growing set) of product categories you can’t buy in the US. What I typically find though is all these “we should force people to buy US” folks don’t actually own American-made goods even in categories where it’s relatively easy.
You could buy US-made garments in the 80s and 90s. Just like you could buy American TVs, vacuum cleaners, computers, and everything else. In fact Americans had a great quality of life back then, arguably a better one if you go by the attainability of things like housing, affordability, and economic inequality.
Not imaginary, I have been sharing info with Congressional reps on this topic who are working on policy, as well as the data on H-1B fraud and use for wage suppression. I haven't even had to pay a bribe ("campaign contribution") to get their ear, which is nice.
> How many American-made garments are in your closet right now?
This is a tired argument. The electorate was told "not to worry, we're offshoring the low value work so we can focus on high value work." Then, they offshored and automated the high value work.
> You are aware we do make many things in America today, right?
As someone who owns quite a few American made garments (and has paid the price to do so), I'm amazed you got such a long response that basically dodged the question.
The US service economy is ~83% of GDP. Manufacturing only makes up 8% of jobs in the US. Why do I care about US made products? Corporations are offshoring services and knowledge work, manufacturing has been gone for some time and will not be back. If it does come back, it'll be mostly automated, lights out facilities (like China).
So! I think it makes a lot of sense to impair the offshoring of these service and knowledge jobs when there isn't a labor shortage and we're likely in a recession. If you need more data, I can provide as much as you would like on this topic.
There's more to manufacturing than just rebuilding factories. You need everything from supply chains (which are going to include some foreign materials in many cases), to people who want to work in a factory in 2026, to consumers who want to pay extra for domestically made products.
It's not as easy as saying "just tax imports" or "just tax offshoring" because that hits the average folks who are barely getting by, as every cost gets passed down to the consumer.
I live in a country that used to be heavily industrialized (back in the previous regime when the goal was to be self-sufficient). In the 90s we lost most of the domestic industry as the factories got privatized and opening foreign trade enabled cheaper foreign products to flood the market. Most factories were sold off or just went out of business.
There's been some success with small businesses doing manufacturing domestically but it's mostly niche and not near what it used to be back when every house had at least some domestically made clothes, furniture, electronics...
Labor is expensive, market small, taxes high, and lately even high energy costs and rising import fees on materials from abroad. Plus of course the fact that people can't afford to pay 5-10x for the same thing made domestically when they can barely afford the thing at 1x the price.
This comment is literally just numbers about how the US has ceded low value add jobs and dominated high value add jobs.
I am asking why this is intrinsically a problem.
Or if it's not intrinsically a problem, then what are the downstream consequences we should care about, and can we talk about them explicitly instead of just assuming the best way to mitigate them is to put our economy into reverse advancement.
Nor is it popular once actually realized. It's mostly for dumbasses to go "rah rah" thinking they'll be at the top of the pyramid. The problem with this form of governance is it puts the most vicious, selfish, and brutal people at the top. Those are rarely the most intelligent and (obviously) never the most magnanimous.
Yes, there is some (if not conclusive) evidence that speedy trial and persistent execution of the worst, most violent offenders reduces violence in the next generation: https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC10480901/ It turns out killing the worst per cent of a generation's males provides a powerful selection effect. It's by no means the only cause or conclusive but worth considering.
I'd be more shocked if culling a full per cent of men yearly did nothing. Plus a lot died at the scene of crimes or in prison awaiting trial. The question is how much and precisely what. Doing reliable social science is hard enough on current data or interventions. It's very hard with historical data over that sort of time period. However, we get better knowledge by discussing interesting hypotheses and how to study them better. This one is interesting and there may be something to it. It's also at least quasi-testable; someone could fund a study on examining alleles associated with aggression in historical remains.
Note that Frost and Harpending are pretty conservative in their estimates; they figure only ballpark half the decline could be explained by this.
If you were to approach this question with intellectual honesty, you would identify pretty quickly that there are far better ways to try to answer it.
Case-control methods, natural experiments, surveys of criminals, and meta-analyses of the prior.
Literally any method other than "pick 600 year period and say 'vibes shifted generally across a continent and then homicide went down'"
Of course this question has been studied extensively for decades and the current conclusion is: completely inconclusive!
There's some evidence it increases violent crime, some that it decreases it, most evidence doesn't clearly show any effect at all.
So whatever effect it may have, it almost certainly isn't very strong, or is countervailed by opposing effects.
I think that if we're proposing the State, which we know to be fallible in so many cases, should make irreversible decisions like "executing suspected bad guys" more frequently, then we should have extremely strong evidence that it would actually achieve the desired result.
> It's also at least quasi-testable; someone could fund a study on examining alleles associated with aggression in historical remains.
Good luck establishing how "alleles associated with aggression" contributes to violence. I'm pretty sure most of the people who adopt your position would argue that their "aggressiveness" is a virtue in whatever competitive landscape they choose to occupy.
You are talking about the kind of research we can do today. You can't really do case-control for medieval populations easily, nor surveys of criminals, nor of the broader population since everyone is several centuries dead. Natural experiments might work and are exactly one of the things we should see further researched in this area. Meta-analyses can't happen until there's other research to meta-analyze.
I think we're in violent agreement here; yes, this obviously bears further investigation. The way good science gets done is "We have some preliminary evidence that could support a certain hypothesis. We think people should do further investigation." Then you go do that further investigation to see if you can reject the null.
The alleles point, though, is weaker. You're not just looking at stuff like MAO-A activity, also CDH13, COMT, other variants. We actually have a pretty good set worth analyzing that are pretty well-characterized in research, so we don't have to depend on any one particular allele. We have a pretty good set of those that aren't associated with, I don't know, aggression in boardrooms.
I assume you're being funny, but the question is, will killing someone to make an example of them deter others? And the answer is: not as much as to justify killing people for being violent.
I’m not sure why you think pointing out that executing multiple time violent offenders stops violent offenders is ‘bad faith’ rather than logic, but I and presumably the others pointing out the same thing are not particularly bothered by your actions.
I answered you as if you weren't being funny, since the answer to you being funny is "ha ha".
The problem with killing people for being violent is that violence is a spectrum with genocide and serial murder on the one end, and snarky comments on the other. Whereas the capital punishment is pretty far towards the killing end of violence.
So when you seek to kill people for being violent, you need to at least specify how violent you need to be. Is killing one person enough? Or maiming multiple? Or just being really snarky for decades?
While "an eye for an eye" seems direct, manslaughter comes in several degrees based on intent and state of mind.
The main reason why capital punishment in the US is preceeded with decades of imprisonment is because killing people "legally" isn't simple.
The only way to simplify killing people is to let go of your humanity.
A practical concern is that capitalism (at its most ideal) is a mechanism to signal what people want/need, and as more capital accrues to fewer and fewer people, they become the only people whose wants/needs are important for the market to satisfy, which then breaks the central desirable trait of capitalism.
We should want enough variation in incomes to produce incentive for outsized value creation, but not so much that the market has relatively zero incentive to meet the needs of anyone who's not in the 1%.
This is just factually not true. Healthy people subsidize the unhealthy (even those made unhealthy by their own idiocy) to a truly absurd degree.
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