How sure are you? Could it actually happen that way 95% of the time, which means they don’t crash and we never hear about it? Likely a pilot gets disciplined for the other errors and nobody else cares? This exact thing could happen 20 times with everything turning up relatively ok and we only heard about it because they didn’t make that final call correctly either.
To be clear I’m not an aviator, just an armchair statistician with an interest in aviation
> This exact thing could happen 20 times with everything turning up relatively ok and we only heard about it because they didn’t make that final call correctly either
This concept is called normalization of deviance and is the cause of a lot of accidents in aviation and other fields.
This was a discussion in the aviation subreddit too. I am also not an aviator, but just someone with an interest.
What the outcome of the discussion was that it depends on the culture and training of the organisation. It could be possible that it does happen like this 95% of the time with no crash in that specific organisation.
> studies at Microsoft and elsewhere showing it’s closer to 14 percent
This is a depressing stat. The real productivity gains come from leaving soul sucking big tech companies where nothing gets done with any sort of urgency.
In my open source work I believe this is the same. I don't have numbers, but I'm sure the vast majority of my time isn't spent writing code. Of course, it depends on how you define "writing code".
It is not urgency. Large production systems mean you are doing mostly unsexy operational planning. If I had a dollar each time I hear the word "data migration" I reckon I could do well.
Buy-Borrow-Die resets the basis for capital gains tax, but then there's estate tax when the money gets passed on (exemption is only $15 million, trivial to billionaires).
No, taxed when you earn the money that repays the loan. Income tax, capital gains taxes, dividend taxes, estate taxes, etc... However the money was acquired to repay the loan, a tax was applied.
Can I e.g. borrow against my assets and not pay any taxes?
If you have a 401(k), yes. It's a way to turn a 25% credit card debt into a 5% loan.
The hitch is that while you can pay the credit card company over 30 years, the 401(k) loan is less than a decade, resulting in higher payments short-term, but money saved in the long term.
This strategy is not a traditional loan with interest and regular payments. If you try to live on regular loans it doesn't make any sense. It's a scheme mostly only available to HNW people where they repay upon death in certain tax loophole ways.
You won't pay taxes but you will pay interest. Most forms of value (real estate, gold, stocks, your car) you can borrow against in the USA, but the interest you pay almost always makes it a dumb idea.
Perhaps it’s a generational change? People who grew up with computers went on to be more productive with them, something like that might happen with AI too.
I’d give humans some credit, they’re an adaptable bunch. AI won’t replace humans in the same way humans did not replace cockroaches. It’s a non-sequitur.
We generally don’t allow cockroaches to thrive in the spaces we claim for ourselves. Question is how much space (economic or otherwise) will AI claim for itself and whether there will be any left for us.
The problem is the amount of data with that cutoff is really minuscule to produce anything powerful. You might be able to generate a lot of 1700s sounding data, you’d have to be careful not to introduce newer concepts or ways of thinking in that synthetic data though. A lot of modern texts talk about rates of change and the like in ways that are probably influenced by preexisting knowledge of calculus.
Without passing opinion on GP's point, I think that just proves it's hard to establish a data set that doesn't bias toward the result you're hoping to find.
I’ve noticed some people with seemingly fulfilling hobbies stop doing them after quitting their job as well. It’s entirely possible all those hobbies are valuable precisely as something powerful to latch onto and disconnect from the day job, and seem pointless the day after quitting. Seems like you had a strong sense of identity outside of your job already before quitting. Building that could be a lot of hard work for other people (and it sometimes comes as a surprise that it even needs to be built).
