Also a technique used all over the place for studying how molecules react to light. Probe it with as short of a laser pulse you can afford to buy and measure the light emitted by it some time later. My wife has been doing this basic technique for years studying things like molecules to generate fuels from sunlight. (Or was until solar energy funding as practically eliminated last year, now it's studying other things using similar techniques)

Wouldn't comparing between two downloads reveal if the files are watermarked immediately though. Especially the sentence or other steganographic watermarks embedded in the text itself should show up pretty clearly to a simple comparison.

That's the problem with all the LLM based AI's the cost to run them is huge compared to what people actually feel they're worth based on what they're able to do and the gap seems pretty large between the two imo.

They probably organize individual accounts the same as organization accounts for larger groups of users at the same company internally since it all rolls up to one billing. That's my first pass guess at least.

That is a factor most people miss when thinking about the replication crisis. For the harder physical sciences a wrong paper will fairly quickly be found because as people go to expand on the ideas/use that data and get results that don't match the model informed by paper X they're going to eventually figure out that X is wrong. There might be issues with getting incentives to write and publish that negative result but each paper where the results of a previous paper are actually used in the new paper is a form of replication.

Most interesting results are not so simple to recreate that would could reliably expect undergrads to do perform the replication even if we ignore the cost of the equipment and consumables that replication would need and the time/supervision required to walk them through the process.

Most papers generate zero patent revenue or even lead to patents at all. For major drugs maybe that works but we already have clinical trials before the drug goes to market that validate the efficacy of the drugs.

There's a big gulf between being wrong because you or a collaborator missed an uncontrolled confounding factor and falsifying or altering results. Science accepts that people sometimes make mistakes in their work because a) they can also be expected to miss something eventually and b) a lot of work is done by people in training in labs you're not directly in control of (collaborators). They already aim for quality and if you're consistently shown to be sloppy or incorrect when people try to use your work in their own.

The final bit is a thing I think most people miss when they think about replication. A lot of papers don't get replicated directly but their measurements do when other researchers try to use that data to perform their own experiments, at least in the more physical sciences this gets tougher the more human centric the research is. You can't fake or be wrong for long when you're writing papers about the properties of compounds and molecules. Someone is going to come try to base some new idea off your data and find out you're wrong when their experiment doesn't work. (or spend months trying to figure out what's wrong and finally double check the original data).

Well, this is why the funniest and smartest way people commit fraud is faking studies that corroborate very careful collaborators' findings (who are collaborating with many people, to make sure their findings are replicated). That way, they get co-authorship on papers that check out, and nobody looks close enough to realize that they actually didn't do those studies and just photoshopped the figures to save time and money. Eliezer Masliah, btw. Ironically only works if you can be sure your collaborators are honest scientists, lol.

In fields like psychology, though, you can be wrong for decades. If your result is foundational enough, and other people have "replicated" it, then most researchers will toss out contradictory evidence as "guess those people were an unrepresentative sample". This can be extremely harmful when, for instance, the prevailing view is "this demographic are just perverts" or "most humans are selfish thieves at heart, held back by perceived social consensus" – both examples where researcher misconduct elevated baseless speculation to the position of "prevailing understanding", which led to bad policy, which had devastating impacts on people's lives.

(People are better about this in psychology, now: schoolchildren are taught about some of the more egregious cases, even before university, and individual researchers are much more willing to take a sceptical view of certain suspect classes of "prevailing understanding". The fact that even I, a non-psychologist, know about this, is good news. But what of the fields whose practitioners don't know they have this problem?)

Yeah like I said the soft validation by subsequent papers is more true in more baseline physical sciences because it involves fewer uncontrollable variables. That's why I mentioned 'hard' sciences in my post, messy humans are messy and make science waaay harder.

That.. still requires funding. Even if your lab happens to have all the equipment required to replicate you're paying the grad student for their time spent on replicating this paper and you'll need to buy some supplies; chemicals, animal subjects, pay for shared equipment time, etc.

I don't think there's a way with a phone that people would actually be willing to use. At some point it has to be decrypted to be displayed to the user and there's always the chance there's a flaw somewhere in the stack from hardware to OS to app etc that will have a gap to exfiltrate the data.