… and not entirely unreasonably so, given that Elon Musk teased that number as late as last week: “We have a shot at achieving our first 100,000 vehicle delivery quarter,”

https://www.sbsun.com/2019/09/26/business-briefly-tesla-surg...

It is unreasonable. "Have a shot" implies it's unlikely to occur.

I don't think it implies that at all. To me, having a shot means that it's entirely in the realm of probability.

"He breaks clear of the defender and has a shot at goal" doesn't imply "it's unlikely to happen", but there's a notable chance of it.

And where did they get that number from?

A number of sources are reporting that Musk said it in an email to employees:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-26/tesla-sur...

On the contrary, he said "had a shot" at 100k, which implies it's unlikely but possible.

Fair enough, I was just answering where the number came from.

Elon Musk