I'm familiar with your (1) and I think it fits extremely well with the negative emotion explanation.
At least for me, making a difficult decision that might have far-reaching consequences can be very uncomfortable if I don't have all the information. And it can be very easy to procrastinate because I tell myself that more information might be available in the future (even when that is clearly not true).
So, it's not so much that I search for an optimal strategy and more that I know there isn't one and I don't want to bite the bullet yet and make a decision.
My brain latches onto the few examples where it did pay off, though. "Imagine if I would've started earlier - all that work I did would've been completely wasted."
In reality, that work probably wouldn't have been completely wasted, and even then, I certainly wouldn't be any further behind on the project if I'd done it instead of slacking off.
At least for me, making a difficult decision that might have far-reaching consequences can be very uncomfortable if I don't have all the information. And it can be very easy to procrastinate because I tell myself that more information might be available in the future (even when that is clearly not true).
So, it's not so much that I search for an optimal strategy and more that I know there isn't one and I don't want to bite the bullet yet and make a decision.