Based on your personal experience, you may well know more about this industry than I do. But I certainly had the impression that, while spamming is LESS profitable today, that it still had a net-positive income flow. This impression came from sources like this: http://www.icsi.berkeley.edu/pubs/networking/2008-ccs-spamal... (admittedly, 3 years old).
A brief dip into unprofitability will not destroy the industry because (as you say) another dozen n00bs will join. But I believe that an extended period (say, a year or two) might kill it off -- the "n00bs" could not operate without the extensive infrastructure of tools and those WOULD be damaged or destroyed by unprofitibility.
A brief dip into unprofitability will not destroy the industry because (as you say) another dozen n00bs will join. But I believe that an extended period (say, a year or two) might kill it off -- the "n00bs" could not operate without the extensive infrastructure of tools and those WOULD be damaged or destroyed by unprofitibility.