I’m a healthy 25 year old. I think simple QALY metrics for me getting the vaccine or risking getting COVID naturally are roughly even (the COVID side fluctuates as the chance of getting the virus changes) at around a 1e-6 chance of serious complications. The AstraZeneca vaccine seems to have a slightly higher chance of complications.
These simple, individualised analyses are about the extent of what public health authorities may do when deciding on the safety or benefits of a treatment. However they exclude other advantages to being a person with a vaccine:
- maybe some of your friends are being very cautious about the virus (for rational or irrational reasons) and being your vaccinated means more meaningful interactions with them
- maybe your employer lets vaccinated people return to the office (and you want to return). Or maybe there are other things that require vaccines (when I went up to university I had to confirm that I’d had a bunch of vaccines, for example)
- maybe you want to be altruistic and reduce the risk you cause to other people
- better ability to travel internationally
- if everyone does it then there is less of an ability for further mutations to develop
I mostly understand why health authorities are limited, and perhaps those simple statistics are the right thing to communicate to the public. But I think in our society as it is, getting the vaccine is still +ve EV for young people.
These simple, individualised analyses are about the extent of what public health authorities may do when deciding on the safety or benefits of a treatment. However they exclude other advantages to being a person with a vaccine:
- maybe some of your friends are being very cautious about the virus (for rational or irrational reasons) and being your vaccinated means more meaningful interactions with them
- maybe your employer lets vaccinated people return to the office (and you want to return). Or maybe there are other things that require vaccines (when I went up to university I had to confirm that I’d had a bunch of vaccines, for example)
- maybe you want to be altruistic and reduce the risk you cause to other people
- better ability to travel internationally
- if everyone does it then there is less of an ability for further mutations to develop
I mostly understand why health authorities are limited, and perhaps those simple statistics are the right thing to communicate to the public. But I think in our society as it is, getting the vaccine is still +ve EV for young people.