We have empirical data showing how safe actual level 2 self driving cars are in practice. So there’s no reason to work from base assumptions. Yes, level 2 self driving cars cause avoidable accidents, but overall rate is very close to the rate people do. The only way that’s happing is they are causing and preventing roughly similar numbers of accidents.
Which means people are either paying enough attention or these self driving systems are quite good. My suspicion is it’s a mix of both, where people tend to zone out in less hazardous driving conditions and start paying attention when things start looking dangerous. Unfortunately, that’s going to cause an equilibrium where people pay less attention as these systems get better.
> We have empirical data showing how safe actual level 2 self driving cars are in practice.
Do we? Where does that come from? The data Tesla provides is hopelessly non-representative because it makes the assumption that the safety of any given road is independent of whether a driver chooses to switch on the system there.
Only overall numbers actually mater here, if self driving is off then that’s just the default risk from human driving in those conditions. Talk to your insurance company, they can give you a break down by make, model, and trim levels.
Which means people are either paying enough attention or these self driving systems are quite good. My suspicion is it’s a mix of both, where people tend to zone out in less hazardous driving conditions and start paying attention when things start looking dangerous. Unfortunately, that’s going to cause an equilibrium where people pay less attention as these systems get better.