No one can say for sure. It's a doomsday scenario that no one is really prepared for.
The only thing anyone can say with any certainty is that the next president of the USA will be a Republican, because that's what this is all about. Destroy the economy, blame the incumbent, and scoop up the next election.
Not really. One thing we can be grateful for is that neither party really wants a default, because neither party is confident that it would be the electoral beneficiary.
It might seem that Republicans would get the benefit, but this fact in itself provides a reason for people to blame Republicans if things go bad, since they'll assume (as you appear to be doing) that they caused the default in order to get the benefit. This makes it pretty much a wash -- if bad things happen, both sides will blame the other and we can't quite see in advance how it'll all play out in the court of public opinion.
Oh if only that were even remotely realistic, what a wonderful world this would be, full of love and joy and happiness, instead of the miserable, hate filled and self destructive reality we actually live in.
Adlai Stevenson said it best: When a supporter told him he "had the vote of the thinking man", he replied "Thank you, but I need a majority to win."
It's funny because it's true. It's also very very sad, because it's true. The vast majority of the voting public are idiotic to the point of absurdity. Let's take a trip down memory lane and look at some of the mind numbingly stupid things many and most of the american electorate believe/believed.
Health Care reform = Death Panels & Socialism
Bill Clinton was/is a serial killer.
Gay Marriage is immoral
Al Gore claimed to invent the internet.
Al Gore invented the internet.
18% of people believe Obama is a muslim. That's up 7 points on the previous year.
34% of people DON'T know that Obama is a Christian.
45% of republicans believe Barrack Obama was born outside of the United States.
99% of republicans believe John McCain was born IN the United States.
Global warming is a myth/hoax.
There is a god.
I'll save the best till last. The following are all conscious lies, that came out of the mouths of US politicians, and were believed by significant amounts, if not the majority of the US electorate:
Saddam Hussein was responsible for 9/11
Iraq and al-Qa'ida were working together
Iraq was seeking uranium from Africa
Iraq was trying to import aluminium tubes to develop nuclear weapons
Iraq had WMDs
Iraq had missiles that could reach the UK
Saddam Hussein had the wherewithal to develop smallpox
US and British claims were supported by the IAEA inspectors
Iraq was obstructing the inspectors
Iraq could deploy its weapons of mass destruction in 45 minutes
Troops would face chemical and biological weapons
Iraq's oil money would go to Iraqis
And the coup de grâce!
WMD's were found in Iraq, or to quote Bush precisely from may 30th 2003: "Those who say we haven't found the banned manufacturing devices or banned weapons - they're wrong. We found them."
All lies, every single one of them. You see, here's the rub: The truth doesn't matter one teeny tiny incy wincy little bit. No where on the face of this planet do electorates vote on truth, or even policy. They have no long term memory. And heaven forbid they ever change because it would be impossible to win a majority if they did.
All the republicans want to do is destroy Barrack Obama. There's no plan B, they have no idea what they would do if they did destroy him and they don't care how much damage they do in the process. It's a scorched earth policy. But if they do force a default and ruin the global economy, come the next election it wont matter whose fault it was because that wont be the story. The story will be whatever the republicans want it to be. It will be a lie, and things will be so bad, people will be so angry, that they'll believe it.
The only thing anyone can say with any certainty is that the next president of the USA will be a Republican, because that's what this is all about. Destroy the economy, blame the incumbent, and scoop up the next election.