US/USSR were prepared for theatre level nuclear engagements, as long as not on USSR or US soil. I would not dismiss trading tactical nukes on third party soil if things get desperate. PRC SCS islands, US indo-pac bases, carrier groups are no brainers. Up to US bases in Japan and Australia. I think we dismiss low level nuke engagement at peril, any competent war planner will keep it in the repertoire.
> PRC SCS islands, US indo-pac bases, carrier groups are no brainers.
PRC SCS islands are sand piles with a couple of barracks and a landing strip, that would not be an equal trade for a carrier group.
> US/USSR were prepared for theatre level nuclear engagements, as long as not on USSR or US soil.
I dunno what America was prepared for, but I was in USSR at the time and the public message was any nuclear confrontation will end up being a total one.
It's not an equal trade, but it's as close to proportional tactical/theatre level nuclear retaliation as US can get, PRC simply doesn't have many overseas bases / vunerabilities for US to target. Vast majority of PRC forces are on the mainland which is... basically the top of the escalation ladder, and opens up CONUS + territories for proportional retaliation.
Otherwise, SCS bases are substantial forward deployment positions for PRC. Conventionally neutralizing SCS bases would require 100s of ordnance from naval platforms in a mostly secondary theatre - substantial amount of what US can concentrate in region. The bases serve missile sinks by design. So in a sense, taking them out via tactical nuke versus expending significant in theater munitions is an appropriate trade.
>public message
There's a lot of (declassified) literature on nonstrategic nuclear weapons and scenarios, war plans for theatre level use in Europe and Asia. Here's a report from this July.
Public messaging is going to play up MAD, but nonstrategic nukes has never been off the table. PRC has no first use, but one never knows. Especially since the engagements are likely maritime over empty waters, which has different escalatory potential than scenarios of nuking NATO/USSR buffer countries during cold war. It's not that I think it's likely, just the chances are less non-zero than what's publically presented, i.e. the 2021 report exists in the first place because US wonks are at least discussing tactical nukes which are not subject to arms control agreements.
US/USSR were prepared for theatre level nuclear engagements, as long as not on USSR or US soil. I would not dismiss trading tactical nukes on third party soil if things get desperate. PRC SCS islands, US indo-pac bases, carrier groups are no brainers. Up to US bases in Japan and Australia. I think we dismiss low level nuke engagement at peril, any competent war planner will keep it in the repertoire.