0.012 would be too low to be a CFR. That roughly the right number for COVID IFR (maybe a bit too low), which can be calculated in ways that make it less speculative e.g. sero-surveys. Even so CFR is also speculative because so many cases aren't reported: that's the reason IFR exists as a separate concept.
In science you're really meant to use all the data because the problem with this sort of cherry-picking is that it can go both ways. Florida removed all its restrictions and was predicted to become a bloodbath just like they predicted that for Sweden. It didn't happen, results appear to have been unaffected by the changes. Studies that look at all the data find no correlations between lockdowns and COVID mortality (but lots of correlations with other bad problems).
This is the correct take. At this point, since we've already vaccinated the only control groups we had in the trials, we no longer can draw valuable conclusions. The only statistic that we should now rely on, in order to account for all positives and negatives from government's COVID response (vaccinations, lockdowns, hysterics and tantrums) is year-over-year (preferably flu season) all cause mortality, in a specific location, for a specific population.
0.012 is the San Francisco CFR. 0.016 is the USA CFR, if we go by confirmed cases/deaths as reported by the New York Times.
The IFR should be substantially lower than either of these; many deaths go uncounted, but a far larger proportion of infections never get a confirmed positive test. I would guess IFR to be in the 0.004–0.008 range. (Which is still scary high!) I’m sure if you do a search of the academic literature you can find more careful analysis and better informed estimates. It obviously varies from place to place and is substantially dependent on demographics and availability of medical care.
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Florida was a bloodbath! It has had among the worst outcomes anywhere in the USA since mid 2021. Tens of thousands of avoidable deaths after the universal free availability of extremely effective vaccines and better understanding of viral transmission. The state government not only stopped any state-level public health action, it actively prevented state/local public health departments and local governments from acting. It is hard to imagine a more complete failure of state leadership.
Florida has had something like 4x more Covid deaths than San Francisco, per capita. And if we only look at deaths after widespread vaccine availability, Florida has had >10x more.
Of course, the virus eventually burned through a large majority of the unvaccinated population, and without enough remaining hosts to infect, flamed out. Fingers crossed that future virus variants don’t have enough immune escape to burn back through the state again.
>Florida was a bloodbath! It has had among the worst outcomes anywhere in the USA since mid 2021.
Yet, despite being significantly "older" than CA, it did significantly better than CA in 2020 with regards to all-cause-mortality. 2021, seems to be a different story at this point and I'm very curious as to the 10% difference between years (certainly seems to imply the virus has not burned through the population, assuming the virus had anything to do with mortality).
You're right. I dropped a zero by mistake, I was seeing 0.0012 (0.12%) but that's not what was being written.
The usual credible figures I see for IFR are between 0.1% and 0.3% - higher figures tend to be using bad methodologies like including estimates from the very first days of the pandemic when people were trying to estimate IFRs using random Chinese media reports, etc. If you restrict yourself to more rigorous methodologies and sample sizes, IFR falls a lot.
As for Florida being a "bloodbath", lol. That word doesn't mean what you think it means. Nowhere has been a bloodbath, and if there's one thing that's been consistently true about Covid data it's that you can make anywhere seem worse or better than anywhere else by choosing what to compare against. Use all the data and Florida seems pretty good, especially as Europe is busy proving that vaccines appear to have accomplished nothing at all in terms of total numbers, despite the many claims of efficacy.
In science you're really meant to use all the data because the problem with this sort of cherry-picking is that it can go both ways. Florida removed all its restrictions and was predicted to become a bloodbath just like they predicted that for Sweden. It didn't happen, results appear to have been unaffected by the changes. Studies that look at all the data find no correlations between lockdowns and COVID mortality (but lots of correlations with other bad problems).