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If Europe stops buying Russian gas (a big if, and something that might happen later rather than sooner), are there other countries which would buy it? China, for instance?


Probably, but this would hurt Russia immensely. Currently there is not much infrastructure to support delivery of that much more gas to China, so it would need to be built and that would probably take years.

At the same time, it would hurt Europe more than Russia in the short-term. (But it might be really worth it in long term)


that would probably take years.

We underestimate Chinese productivity at our own peril.

While we deal with this Ukraine/Russia thing, it would be unwise to not wargame out some 'humor me' scenarios.

"I know the Chinese could never build that much infrastructure in the short term. But 'humor me', what if they can?"


If they can build it, they still do not have the demand for that much extra gas, probably just little.

The Chinese government is despicably authoritarian, but unlike Putin, they are not crazy and they are playing it long-term.

They won't condemn Russian invasion too harshly, but they don't want to break energy supply chains from West to help out a not-exactly-friendly state (just an enemy of an enemy).




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