Well, after what Russia did anything is possible. But the interesting question here is "why would they do that?".
AFAIK Taiwan doesn't have any resources like Ukraine does. It has an amazing strategic presence militarily, but strengthening their military position in the Pacific doesn't immidiately help with an economic problem unless the US is trying to blockade them by sea.
> the interesting question here is "why would they do that?"
China is not Russia. But Xi is weak. There was no reason to rush on Hong Kong when it was going to, without controversy, revert to Chinese law in a few decades. By being impatient, Xi undermined Chinese interests there, in Taiwan and internationally in favour of his personal political interests. If China invades Taiwan, it will be in recapitulation of Galtieri’s junta in the Falklands.
Instead of letting democracy fester, potentially spreading the sentiment to the mainland, Xi has effectively neutralised the opposition in Hong Kong. Reading this as weakness is wishful thinking.
And militarily, as well as economically, an invasion of Taiwan is a lot less clear cut than it was before the war in Ukraine started. Plus, Taiwn would be an amphibious invasion, against a very well prepared and supported defender.
I 100% agree with the outlook of Dalio, but if that is the plan then why provoke the war now? If they wait 5-10 years the US might implode and not even be able to resist them in the Pacific. The US economy is pretty questionable.
It isn't lost on Chinese high command that the longer they wait, the easier it will be to fight the US. All their planners would be saying "lets not start the war with the US now, lets wait a few years".
Now maybe they go in Putin-style anyway, but Russia is being cornered. China isn't under that sort of external pressure. They can afford to drag this out, Russia has been losing vs. the US for more than 40 years.
>then why provoke the war now? If they wait 5-10 years the US might implode and not even be able to resist them in the Pacific. The US economy is pretty questionable.
Xi is getting old. He may want to be around for the invasion. Also, if the next leader isn't as aggressive, the moment may be missed.
China is imploding far ahead of schedule developmentally (probably mostly a one child policy thing), whereas the US population is doing the reverse. By 2030, the tail end cohort of the most aggressive era of population suppression will be nearing 40y.o.
Do you mean economy is better somewhere else?
There are now more jobs in US than before the pandemic.
Isn't that pretty good at least relatively speaking?
The US is deeply in debt and printing money has become part of the Plan A response to every crisis.
They can't afford to wage war in Asia against China. Afghanistan against goatherds had them gasping with the exertion, and this proxy war against Russia might easily prove too much if they get overexcited. It is just a matter of time until the US has to pull their head in for financial reasons. If China waits 10 years there is even a chance the US collapses on its own without help. They aren't going to recover from 130% debt:GDP without a political crisis of some sort.
If China waits 10 years, their population will already have gone down in absolute terms, and their population is aging significantly faster than the US'. This is worse than it seems when you factor in the very low retirement ages that China has saddled itself with.
Per the post above, China's population has been dropping since 4 years ago but the statistics have been doctored pretty aggressively to hide this fact. The linked tweet alleges a 120million person discrepancy between government reporting and the reality.
History suggests that countries go to war during economically challenging times. A dictator whose power is slipping also tends towards war. Sovereignty at sea is also a big attraction. Taiwan being a perennial thorn in the side of the Chinese regime is another.
China has been getting more aggressive lately— flying military jets deep into Taiwanese air space. I would not be surprised if China made a move in the next 18 months.
Sure. So why Taiwan? Why not head north into Russia and Mongolia? There are lots more resources up there, and Russia doesn't have the worlds most violent military looming behind them.
"one China" is a very serious thing to the PRC government, maybe comparable as a rallying cry to manifest destiny for US back in the 19th century.
No one in China is looking around trying to figure out which direction will be the most profitable direction for an invasion that they're gunning for. They're gunning for Taiwan specifically. As far as economic imperialism, China shows low willingness to attempt nation building and high enthusiasm for investing in projects in questionably stable states.
Perhaps not much resources over there and no excuse to start a war? tbh not sure if the US will really interfere with military action if a war is really started
AFAIK Taiwan doesn't have any resources like Ukraine does. It has an amazing strategic presence militarily, but strengthening their military position in the Pacific doesn't immidiately help with an economic problem unless the US is trying to blockade them by sea.