Great article - I read a trashy wish-fulfillment article with nearly the same title yesterday that assumed "we're all reasonable people here," and was all jazz hands and hot hopeful air.
Still, the material basis of production matters too. WWI couldn't have been such a long war without the invention of an economical synthetic ammonia. In the current case, Russia can't outproduce the allies, and may not even be able to keep making sufficient shells; Germany made itself genuinely self-sufficient before WWII (including synthetic oil tech licensed from the US) but Russian production now is highly dependent on Western chips, etc. This may eventually see the Ukrainians sweep the field after a long period of attrition.
Still, the material basis of production matters too. WWI couldn't have been such a long war without the invention of an economical synthetic ammonia. In the current case, Russia can't outproduce the allies, and may not even be able to keep making sufficient shells; Germany made itself genuinely self-sufficient before WWII (including synthetic oil tech licensed from the US) but Russian production now is highly dependent on Western chips, etc. This may eventually see the Ukrainians sweep the field after a long period of attrition.