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It's almost impossible to tell.

Yes, plenty of low hanging fruit around; Heck, I can probably literally ask chatGPT to implement for me a few ideas I've got.

OTOH, I've known since secondary school of two distinct ways to make a chemical weapon using only things commonly found in normal kitchens, and absolutely none of the post 9/11 aftershock attacks that got in the news over the next decade did anything remotely so simple, so that example makes me confident that even bad rules passed in haste — as many of them were and remain — can actually help.

(And that's despite my GCSE Chemistry being only grade B).



Right, it's amazing to me the extent to which people are throwing their hands in there and saying "There's absolutely NOTHING that can be done!!! We must accept the AGIs however they will manifest"...

Clearly, it's a very hard problem with massive uncertainties. But we can take actions that will significantly decrease the risk of utter catastrophe.

I don't even think world-ending catastrophe is that likely. But it seems a real enough possibility that we should take it seriously.


I suspect that the people who are saying "nothing can be done" are people who want nothing to be done.


You're not financially incentivized, in most instances, to make chemical bombs with undersink materials.




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