I'd say it's probably more of a canary effect. They'll just be the first ones targeted by the type of general obnoxiousness that Musk's moderation pivot fosters. Everyone else will be put off by it too, albeit less severely, and there will be a bit of a positive feedback loop if the value of the platform (stuff from people you follow) is progressively diminished as people you follow leave because people they followed left because. . .