> 20 years from now, we're still going to want to run our own software
And you'll be able to, on hobby machines or VMs. But the general purpose machine where the owner controls the OS will fade.
Banks, popular sites and other choke points will demand attestation of an unmodified system for access. People will talk about internet access the way they do about driving in the US - a privilege, not a right.
What about Internet access deserves to be considered a privilege and not a right? What human is less entitled to accessing the wealth of knowledge and information available on the Internet? Discriminating who can and cannot access the Internet is not something that will be popular or defensible.
If the search for knowledge itself is considered dangerous, then what of all the knowledge gathered on the public against its will?
Internet access isn't remotely comparable to driving. By driving, you're exposing yourself and others to potential mortal danger. Nothing is automatic, you must be aware of, and follow, all laws concerning how it is to be operated. You have to have a license.
The Internet's spirit will die the day you need a license to access it. The body will take a lot longer.
Unfortunately, I don't think anyone would frame it in that way. It will just be a matter of saying "to protect everyone's security and privacy, only known good devices will be allowed on the web/internet". Software and hardware vendors will provide the right attestations, but if you write a custom kernel, that device will not be allowed to connect by any attested device.
But, you as a person will not be denied the right to access the internet. It's just that you'll need to use a device that doesn't "risk the security of the internet" to do so. Just like if you build a custom vehicle, you aren't allowed to drive it on national roads, because it risks the safety of the road system and all its participants.
I'm not making a normative claim - I don't want a corporate mall, either.
I'm making a prediction. The unregulated internet is a risk to some very powerful interests. They cannot tolerate that. And despite what some people thought early on (me included), IT is a power-amplifier, not an equalizer.
In that vein I agree, nation states are about control, and giving any control to people comes with risk. Personally, I would argue that if they can't trust their own people with basic computing power, it says a lot about the administration's character and capabilities to defend itself. Maybe don't piss off people who outnumber you and are responsible for the prosperity of the state? Royal "you", of course.
That's why I think we have to go the legal route, as little as I trust society and its policies, others do. We need to consider the personal use of property as an extension of the 1st amendment, at least in the States. If I purchase a computer, I should be able to do whatever I want with it, especially if I'm not hurting anyone or violating rights. Ownership needs to mean something, or capitalism's core tenet is lost and the veil begins to slip.
Building spying nanny chips and other "safeguards" are really just obstacles to ownership. It should be considered anti-consumer and a form of military-grade espionage. The John Deere escapades are a prime example of what will happen to general computing if we don't make some sort of effort to protect and enshrine computing freedom.
Maybe it won't be an issue and we'll be 3D-printing PCBs from open or patent-expired schematics so it won't matter. Maybe e-waste will be enough of a problem that there will be enough to hobble along until something bigger coalesces.
I'd rather not go on maybes though, and would rather vote for legislation that ensures the government will punish any business that sells me something and then tries to prevent me from exerting control over it as the owner. That is such obvious fraudulent behavior, there's no good defense for it. Business already enjoys the protection of copyright, trademark, and patent. An important aspect of business is actually parting with what you are selling, and giving up control.
If you want to go dystopian, we're already seeing the glimpses of such a future
with Covid, where alternative "facts" are considered dangerous. It's easy to dismiss now, when it's because it's because sane people don't buy that there are microchips in the vaccine, but a future where information is so dangerous that you need proof of government programming in order to access the unrestricted Internet isn't too far down the slippery slope you're sliding down.
> sane people don't buy that there are microchips in the vaccine
That kind of rhetoric is itself part of the dystopia. There were and still are much more rational perspectives that are deemed wrongthink and lumping them together with obvious crazies is one tactic used to suppress them.
And you'll be able to, on hobby machines or VMs. But the general purpose machine where the owner controls the OS will fade.
Banks, popular sites and other choke points will demand attestation of an unmodified system for access. People will talk about internet access the way they do about driving in the US - a privilege, not a right.
Bet it.