There was a big value drop during the pandemic which is still ongoing because of home office.
Turning them into housing could indeed be a good option for people in big cities, but the real estate market cares about money and housing is not the best option for them.
Are you saying they can't evict the office tenants in order to convert the building? I'm sure any transition from office -> condos will be long, messy, and expensive. Still better than dead, empty cities though.
IIRC (it's been awhile) most office leases are for 5 years, or maybe 3.. I forget. Not sure if they'd have any stipulations to allow evictions in an instance like this.
I would imagine if office buildings offered tenants a get-out-of-your-lease-free card, they'd jump on it. Office leases are not cheap, and go on for years (last one I dealt with was 7!). And if the office is empty...
The most pro-office scenario I can imagine is this:
- There's a massive economic downturn resulting in job losses, power briefly shifts from the employees to the employers, and the incumbent office-heads indeed insists on RTO.
- But they would soon go out of business competing against new employers that are remote-only and have far lower overhead, killing RTO again.
EDIT
One other scenario that just came to mind is an extreme amount of new building and revitalization in cities. If they build enough units, and enough big, nice units, and spruce up the place a bit, living in a city will become cheaper and more practical.
If I can live in a huge nice condo with decent rent, no homeless people on the sidewalk, and close to the office, I wouldn't mind RTO so much.
As it is, city living only makes sense for those in their 20's or those who are truly dedicated to the city lifestyle.
