> more severe unknown incidents like thyroid and pancreatic cancer
Alcoholism, diabetes and obesity don't give you long enough to get these cancers. Even if we had evidence GLP-1 agonists massively increased the risk of these cancers, which we don't, despite them having been studied and prescribed for decades [1][2], the tradeoff makes sense for much of the population.
To put that into perspective, annual cost of diabetes to America is $1,200 per capita ($1,300 adjusted for inflation [2]. 40% more than a month of Ozempic [3].
One twelfth of Americans have diabetes [4]. If the government could negotiate just a 10% bulk discount, the payback period on buying every American with diabetes Ozempic would be around a year. Even if everyone ceased treatment after that, even if you only did this for a couple years, we'd see a permanent boost in productivity and health across the American population.
Government could build their own plants, these drugs are not under patent, just the drug+delivery mechanism is. This says $5 per month as actual costs.
"Semaglutide is expected to become patent-free in the United States no earlier than December 2031" [1].
We could probably strike a volume deal for ~$200 for 5 years and then $75 (the upper end of your study’s estimate for manufacturing cost) for another 5.
This really depends how you calculate cost to society. Everyone dies, and the healthiest people die the slowest. So when you look at the cost of the alternatives the difference looks much smaller or non-existant. If the alternative of getting a heart attack at 57 is retiring at 67, collecting social security for 20 years, getting Alzheimers at 73 and spending 10 years in a Medicare funded memory care facility, obesity and alcoholism don't look as expensive.
Alcoholism, diabetes and obesity don't give you long enough to get these cancers. Even if we had evidence GLP-1 agonists massively increased the risk of these cancers, which we don't, despite them having been studied and prescribed for decades [1][2], the tradeoff makes sense for much of the population.
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/GLP-1_receptor_agonist#Approve...
[2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Exenatide