Revenue has gone up, but fewer publicly traded companies are making a profit than ever before [0].
I could never understand why so many people just talk about revenue. Revenue without profits is meaningless. There's the old logic of "get enough revenue and then figure out profits and you're highly profitable", but it's very clear that switching the "profit switch" is not so easy in practice.
Investors are still basically waiting for the fed to drop rates, which means that people have abandoned rationally thinking about businesses and are just holding until the free money starts pouring in again.
I honestly don't think the AI bubble is anything like the dotcom bubble. There's something much stranger happening here since the entire market is basically hallucinating and AI is just one manifestation of that.
>and are just holding until the free money starts pouring in again.
What guarantee is there that "free money" will come back again?
Wasn't the last free money printer run something like a first time in history, and supposed to be only a temporary measure that went on for far too long leading to inflation and assets spiraling out of control creating various speculative bubbles like crypto, Gamestop fiasco, housing, and dozens to hundreds of crappy overhyped "start-ups" adn food delivery apps, that were never able to be very profitable on their own but still grew like crazy thanks to that free money and gullible investors to stay afloat, leading to an artificial over demand of SW devs which also crashed with them.
Seeing all it lead to, do we even want/need it to come back again? And "But this time will be different" doesn't scan for me as a believable answer since we all know it'll definitely be the same.
"Now, [the unprofitable companies] might not be the big publicly traded kahunas – collectively they hold just a 10% slice of the market’s total revenue pie"
It's detailed in the article, but that graph is way misleading because it isn't weighted by revenue size and the unprofitable part is dominated by tiny companies.
Yes, it’s interesting but mostly a shift of concentration of earnings. Market weighted PE multiples are slightly elevated historically but not insane; forward PE even less so (taken with a grain of salt of course).
I guess we'll see when we are well past the yield curve inversion. If we get past far enough without a collapse I would say we are in a paradigm shift.
Revenue has gone up, but fewer publicly traded companies are making a profit than ever before [0].
I could never understand why so many people just talk about revenue. Revenue without profits is meaningless. There's the old logic of "get enough revenue and then figure out profits and you're highly profitable", but it's very clear that switching the "profit switch" is not so easy in practice.
Investors are still basically waiting for the fed to drop rates, which means that people have abandoned rationally thinking about businesses and are just holding until the free money starts pouring in again.
I honestly don't think the AI bubble is anything like the dotcom bubble. There's something much stranger happening here since the entire market is basically hallucinating and AI is just one manifestation of that.
0. https://finimize.com/content/beware-the-rise-of-unprofitable...