> It will be a loong time before AI can produce lead actors that are believable.
A "loong time" will be sooner that most of us think.
The way this is done currently is similar to motion capture except that the tools are gradually becoming democratized: A single actor can act all the roles you need (You could even act the scenes and roles yourself). That footage is then fed into a model that generates an actor with the appearance and voice that you desire.
As a random on the internet, my prediction is that within a year, you'll be able to produce lead actors that are believable using movie generation plus smartphone footage of yourself acting the scene.
Initially it will be expensive to make a feature length film. But from 2025 onward, the cost will come down as the tools improve. These will be a different type of movie for sure, but every advancement in film technology has always led to films that seem strange compared to what came before.
You're getting downvoted, but I agree with you except for your timeline. This won't be possible in a year. What's here is a concept demo, but the gulf between "that's neat" and "you can make a decent 10 minute short film" is pretty vast.
> But the gulf between "that's neat" and "you can make a decent 10 minute short film" is pretty vast.
Agreed. I expect the tools I described to be prohibitively expensive for the average person for some time. By the end of 2025, probably only well-funded studios will be able to use such tools and probably not economically.
But I'd be quite surprised if Hollywood studios/publishers aren't using their immense back catalogue to train private models right now. I don't think they'll ever allow royalty-free movie generation tools to be used that were trained on their catalogues. So perhaps there'll be a cottage industry of stock footage by amateur and professional actors for training/augmenting the movie generation models and tools that will be available for general use, royalty free.
Or perhaps these tools will simply emerge as just another TikTok filter and we'll see goofy couples who filmed a skit in their living room presented as gladiators arguing on the surface of Mars while their dog runs back and forth between them unable to choose a favourite.
A "loong time" will be sooner that most of us think.
The way this is done currently is similar to motion capture except that the tools are gradually becoming democratized: A single actor can act all the roles you need (You could even act the scenes and roles yourself). That footage is then fed into a model that generates an actor with the appearance and voice that you desire.
As a random on the internet, my prediction is that within a year, you'll be able to produce lead actors that are believable using movie generation plus smartphone footage of yourself acting the scene.
Initially it will be expensive to make a feature length film. But from 2025 onward, the cost will come down as the tools improve. These will be a different type of movie for sure, but every advancement in film technology has always led to films that seem strange compared to what came before.