It's an interesting article but if you had five extremely experienced traders and you used historical events (and supplying them with enormous memory prompting by giving them headlines from financially important events like CPI, interest rate releases), chances are they can remember a huge amount of the results.
The study is saying people couldn’t turn the information into a reliable advantage and your arguing why information leakage might explain why there would be a reliable advantage.
It says that the experienced traders did make money. The OP above is saying that one possible explanation is that the experienced traders simply remembered what happened. As a professional trader myself this seems very reasonable
'Buy the rumor sell the news'. I'd expect most people to not know that advice but pros would. that is pros would know that before most major announcements people had alread guessed based on other indicators and so the announcement is priced in already.
if you could find an alien civialization with a stock market I'd expect pros to do similiarly well just based on that.
amature traders in the real world tend to be more in tune to rumors and thus more likely to get it right since they had already traded by this sime. (or so I would guess)
Well, I mean an LLM can’t make any decisions unless it pulls things into context (into memory). So yeah, it’s true for machines too. You need to remember to even be on the right track.
