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Random probabilities, some I think are certain, others just for fun.

- US abandonment of Ukraine spurs EU to make major change in military posture, spending (leaders will be Poland, France)

- Wide spread unrest in Europe, focused on cultural integration of immigrants from abroad/aforementioned military spending

- China tests US response to Taiwan under Trump with significant but limited escalation

- Israel expands operations in Syria and Lebanon

- Bitcoin to $50k

- Open Source LLM takes lead in ARC benchmark

- Sporadic civil unrest in US, focused on corporations. 2 more CEOs killed. Domestic terrorism significantly galvanized.

- CAD/USD continues to fall, Canadian dollar to US$0.65

- Trump makes some sort of insane offer to integrate Canada to Pierre Poilievre



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