Does not pass the smell test, those accusations hardly even qualify as a crime to be honest. If we had a fully democrat-controlled administration at every level (with every judge being a stout democrat), then I would still give you a <5% probability for Musk to end up behind bars for any of those (!!).
There is a pretty recent precendent on the other side of the political spectrum: Hillary Clinton. Republicans went on and on for how she belonged in prison. Anyone with half a brain was able to tell that this was not gonna happen, because there simply was no case. Republicans got basically absolute power since, and --surprise-- Hillary did not go to prison.
What makes you so confident that you are right about Elon, while the people back then were obviously wrong with Hillary (even without hindisght!).
But that doesn't mean that there is no case against Elon. I'm not sure why you would draw an equals between the two. The SEC really does put people in jail, the stuff with Vlad is bordering on treason.
I think you may have forgotten that we actually used to have a government and there was rule of law.