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Egypt doesn't want Gaza and Jordan doesn't want the West Bank. That's a total non starter.

So after 90 days we have the bulk of hostages still in Gaza. Hamas in total control of all of Gaza. Hamas doesn't want to exchange all the hostages, we've been there after the first ceasefire (24 November 2023 to 30 November 2023).

Look at Hamas' calculus. Surviving in any shape and form while holding hostages is a clear win. Increasing Israel's isolation is a win. Anything else is mostly a don't care. They have no intention of giving up control in Gaza or in ceasing future hostilities against Israel. They would love nothing more than to go back to the tit for tat where they make and fire rockets and mortars at Israel all day and Israel has some limited retaliation.

Ask Sri Lanka and the Tamil Tigers about whether force works or not. Or the Turkish and the Kurds. Or anyone who thought they could go against China. That's not to say that should be the default or the preferred solution, but more force works in situations where you have the power and the other side won't yield.

There is a somewhat stupid/joke saying in Hebrew. What doesn't work with force will work with more force. That's sort of where Israel is right now. Many Israelis don't think this can solve the problem but the government does. I think pretty much everyone would prefer a better/easier way out of this that includes security guarantees and the release of the hostages. There just doesn't seem to be one. It's a problem when fighting an enemy where their loss is their win. There's no leverage. Though in theory Hezbollah was also like that, until it surrendered. The difference in Lebanon/Hezbollah is no hostages and less mix of combatants and civilians.



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