The AI Bubble group (which I'm most likely a member of) also believe that the current added value of AI is obscured by anthropomorphization (regular people WANT the AI to be as smart as a human being), insane levels of marketing, FOMO from executive levels/shareholder/capitalists (basically) - all hoping to get rid of the cost of labor.
Outside of coding, the current wave of AI is:
* a slightly more intuitive search but with much "harder" misfires - a huge business on its own but good luck doing that against Google (Google controls its entire LLM stack, top to bottom)
* intuitive audio/image/video editing - but probably a lot more costly than regular editing (due to misfires and general cost of (re-)generation) - and with rudimentary tooling, for now
* a risky way to generate all sorts of other content, aka AI slop
All those current business models are right now probably billion dollar industries, but are they $500 billion/year industries to justify current spending? I think it's extremely unlikely.
I think LLM tech might be generating $500 billion/year worth of revenues across the entire economy, but probably in 2035. Current investors are investing for 2026, not 2035.
Outside of coding, the current wave of AI is:
* a slightly more intuitive search but with much "harder" misfires - a huge business on its own but good luck doing that against Google (Google controls its entire LLM stack, top to bottom)
* intuitive audio/image/video editing - but probably a lot more costly than regular editing (due to misfires and general cost of (re-)generation) - and with rudimentary tooling, for now
* a risky way to generate all sorts of other content, aka AI slop
All those current business models are right now probably billion dollar industries, but are they $500 billion/year industries to justify current spending? I think it's extremely unlikely.
I think LLM tech might be generating $500 billion/year worth of revenues across the entire economy, but probably in 2035. Current investors are investing for 2026, not 2035.