> It wants to build a Chinese-led system on the ruins of the old liberal trading order, one which will rival Mr Trump’s empire of tariffs. Already China has shifted the geography of its trade: in the year to September its goods exports grew by over 8%, even as those to America fell by 27%.
I keep on wondering what the potential positive result is here for the US. Certainly doesn't seem to be a single one, though there are plenty of people very happy to soldier on as if there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
I fear the true reason this is happening is that autarchy makes for very strong dictators, even as it makes the population very poor. An obvious reason, but such a sad one.
You wouldn't tariff raw material inputs if you wanted to revive manufacturing. The cost of metals alone is hurting lots of American businesses right now
Sudden massive tariffs don't allow enough time for investment. However they do allow a bargaining period where bribes or other mechanisms can exclude certain parties from the tariffs.
> the potential positive result is here for the US
The central campaign promises were to reverse the demographic changes of the last few decades, at the costs of making Americans poorer & reducing America's long-term competitiveness and economic growth. The administration is delivering exactly what voters were promised.
The "positive result" that voters chose here was a reversion in demographic changes.
The uncomfortable reality here is that the Chinese are simply better than us at most things. But simply surrendering all of our core industries is not a viable plan for any country. This puts the US in a difficult position. We are loosing the trade war, but if you recall during Covid we were also unable to secure a lot of basic medical supplies because of this dependence on a non-aligned foreign power. So unless you assume that the CCP are suddenly outstandingly altruistic then you could reasonably prefer losing a trade war to being rendered a vassal state. There might be better ways to avoid this fate, but given the magnitude of China’s advantages right now I am not sure that these are going to be much better. There will be a lot of pain from these tariffs, but doing nothing is also going to cause a lot of pain.
> It wants to build a Chinese-led system on the ruins of the old liberal trading order, one which will rival Mr Trump’s empire of tariffs. Already China has shifted the geography of its trade: in the year to September its goods exports grew by over 8%, even as those to America fell by 27%.
That's fine, but it's not just China and US here. The EU is also making moves.
The reality is that it would be malfeasance for the steward classes in the EU and China to not at least try to replace the US in the face of the recent US missteps. So China and the EU will both be trying to be the reliable and responsible big dog. Which will most likely lead to some kind of multipolar world where the prestige and power of the US is greatly diminished. But it doesn't necessarily translate into automatic Sino-pax.
Sino-pax is definitely one of the possible outcomes. It's even likely, but not a foregone conclusion. So their current moves and bets will very likely pay off, but maybe not as big as they think those moves and bets will pay off.
I keep on wondering what the potential positive result is here for the US. Certainly doesn't seem to be a single one, though there are plenty of people very happy to soldier on as if there is some light at the end of the tunnel.
I fear the true reason this is happening is that autarchy makes for very strong dictators, even as it makes the population very poor. An obvious reason, but such a sad one.