I would be very surprised if taxes on tobacco did not cover the increased costs to the State from tobacco users. When I last looked at it tobacco users were dying early before they imposed huge costs on the State during their old age years and this produced an enormous saving to the State. This was ~20 years ago and we might be much better at keeping people alive and this has changed the calculus.
However, net cost to the state when you factor in inability to work, etc is estimated at twice the tax revenue.
Your point that smokers die younger and so cost the state less is a contentious topic with lots of debate. One thing that is clear is that tobacco firms are actively pushing that narrative, which, given the industry’s history with regards to data and studies like this makes me instantly suspicious: https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB995230746855683470
