Long horizon events like this on Polymarket stabilize around a % odds corresponding to time value of money. You can get 4% buying risk free CDs for that horizon.

this is not true - if you know for certaint that trump will be president through winning an election in 2028 you can make over 20X your money.

at the end of the day people don't actually believe it, which is why trump is valued little. people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.

> people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.

There are in fact people who avoid gambling on general principle, unrelated to any one particular thing they're being pressured to bet on.

I am not sure that is a useful principle. I tend to keep an umbrella around in the car regardless whether the forecast calls for rain. Do these people similarly avoid stock markets, insurance, and similar products in the risk space?

Because nothing screams you're serious more than throwing large sums of money at a shady gambling website.

people who claim to know the winning lotto numbers but never buy tickets shouldn't be taken seriously =)

You can have an opinion without financializing it.

Do you think people getting married are not serious because they fail to take out a bet on Polymarket for whether they will stay together?

your scenario here doesn't really make any sense. one you're conflating getting married with staying together. you could get married and then divorced. two, such a bet wouldn't make sense since it could easily be rigged (and indeed this is what happens with sports betting).

again, if someone says they know the winning lottery and they don't play, they're unserious. nearly impossible to rig, high payout - outcome is of interest to layperson.

The idea was that I figured you’d consider that some things are valuable in ways that don’t involve money. Unfortunately I think the conclusion here is that you actually truly believe that there is nothing that cannot be bet if a suitable market could be formed for it. Of course, I should have realized this, because by placing bets in general you are in fact taking a financial position in the concept of betting markets.

>> people who aren't willing to bet with their money on things they say so absolutely aren't serious people.

Either that, or they don’t have money to throw at dumb bets.

If Trump indeed manages to turn the country into a dictatorship I think winning money on polymarket is going to be the last thing you'll be thinking about

A more charitable explanation is that people believe in a larger set of nearly equivalent outcomes that are not captured in that market.

Some possible outcomes (I personally don't believe they are very probable), but...

There is no "call" or inaugurated at all, Trump stays on via some kind of "emergency". The market will fail to resolve to an outcome (based on what it says).

Somehow (via a normal election, or the outcome being decided in the House) one of Trumps sons becomes president.

This, I think, illustrates some of the problems with far out edge cases in prediction markets. Nailing down all of the possible outcomes exactly is hard.