I don’t think the path was ever exponential but your claim here is almost as if the slow down hit an asymptote like wall.
Most of the improvements are intangible. Can we truly say how much more reliable the models are? We barely have quantitative measurements on this so it’s all vibes and feels. We don’t even have a baseline metric for what AGI is and we invalidated the Turing test also based on vibes and feels.
So my argument is that part of the slow down is in itself an hallucination because the improvement is not actually measurable or definable outside of vibes.
I kind of agree in principle but there are a multitude of clever benchmarks that try to measure lots of different aspects like robustness, knowledge, understanding, hallucinations, tool use effectiveness, coding performance, multimodal reasoning and generation, etc etc etc. all of these have lots of limitations but they all paint a pretty compelling picture that compliments the “vibes” which are also important.
Most of the improvements are intangible. Can we truly say how much more reliable the models are? We barely have quantitative measurements on this so it’s all vibes and feels. We don’t even have a baseline metric for what AGI is and we invalidated the Turing test also based on vibes and feels.
So my argument is that part of the slow down is in itself an hallucination because the improvement is not actually measurable or definable outside of vibes.