You're basically just re-stating my point. You mistakenly believe the pattern you've seen is predictive and so you've invented an explanation for why that pattern reflects some underlying truth, and that's what pundits do for these presidential patterns too. You can already watch Harry Enten on TV explaining that out-of-cycle races could somehow be predictive for 2026. Are they? Not really but eh, there's 24 hours per day to fill and people would like some of it not to be about Trump causing havoc for no good reason.
Notice that your pattern offers zero examples and yet has multiple entirely arbitrary requirements, much like one of those "No President has been re-elected with double digit unemployment" predictions. Why double digits? It is arbitrary, and likewise for your "about a decade" prediction, your explanation doesn't somehow justify ten years rather than five or twenty.
> You mistakenly believe the pattern you've seen is predictive
Why mistakenly? I think you're confusing the possibility of breaking a causal trend with the likelihood of doing that. Something is predictive even if it doesn't have a 100% success rate. It just needs to have a higher chance than other predictions. I'm not claiming Rust has a zero chance of achieving C++'s (diminished) popularity, just that it has a less than 50% chance. Not that it can't happen, just that it's not looking like the best bet given available information.
> Notice that your pattern offers zero examples
The "pattern" includes all examples. Name one programming language in the history of software that's grown its market share by a factor of ten after the age of 10-13. Rust is now older than Java was when JDK 6 came out and almost the same age Python was when Python 3 came out (and Python is the most notable example of a late bloomer that we have). Its design began when Java was younger than Rust is now. Look at how Fortran, C, C++, and Go were doing at that age. What you need to explain isn't why it's possible for Rust to achieve the same popularity as C++, but why it is more likely than not that its trend will be different from that of any other programming language in history.
> Why double digits? It is arbitrary, and likewise for your "about a decade" prediction
The precise number is arbitrary, but the rule is that the rate of adoption of any technology (or anything in a field with selective pressure) spreads at a rate proportional to its competitive advantage. You can ignore the numbers altogether, but the general rule about the rate of adoption of a technology or any ability that offers a competitive advantage in a competitive environment remains. The rate of Rust's adoption is lower than that of Fortran, Cobol, C, C++, VB, Java, Python, Ruby, C#, PHP, and Go and is more-or-less similar to that of Ada. You don't need numbers, just comparisons. Are the causal theory and historical precedent 100% accurate for any future technology? Probably not, as we're talking statistics, but at this point, it is the bet that this is the most likely outcome that a particular technology would buck the trend that needs justification.
I certainly accept that the possibility of Rust achieving the same popularity that C++ has today exists, but I'm looking for the justification that that is the most likely outcome. Yes, some places are adopting Rust, but the number of those saying nah (among C++ shops) is higher than that of all programming languages that have ever become very popular. The point isn't that bucking a trend with a causal explanation is impossible. Of course it's possible. The question is whether it is more or less likely than not breaking the causal trend.
Notice that your pattern offers zero examples and yet has multiple entirely arbitrary requirements, much like one of those "No President has been re-elected with double digit unemployment" predictions. Why double digits? It is arbitrary, and likewise for your "about a decade" prediction, your explanation doesn't somehow justify ten years rather than five or twenty.