My brother (a history book worm) writes on geopolitics as a hobby.

He wrote a comprehensive analysis in French on how Greenland will be the tipping point for NATO, the European Union and even Democracy in the USA

I found it very well articulated on the stakes and chain of consequences, so I asked him to translate it in English so I could share it here, thinking it could interest many

Well written although very typical French in verbosity, to my eyes at least

Among the listed scenarios, I can see others too. Let's imagine the Danes covertly are able to construct a completely independent crises. Or by random event some disaster happens. Let's say an earthquake in California. It would require attention to domestic affairs for a while

A few longships full of berserkers ought to do the trick.

What's the book?

I'm envisioning an editorial written in early 1914 saying "Hey, I really hope nothing happens to the Austrian heir in Sarajevo, because everybody is tied into that and it would really blow up into a Europe-wide crisis."

I want to pair it with a scholarly article written in 2125 asking, "Why the heck did they throw away the entire world order because of a frozen-over, barely-inhabited island?"

NATO is effectively dead already, European leaders just don't seem willing to accept it since they're so dependent on the US.

Instead they cling to the hope that things will improve, despite ample proof it likely will not[1].

[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=46520117