> China has a third of global manufacturing capacity (and have to run flat out to avoid deflation due to domestic consumption that will never grow to meet domestic production capacity).
This sounds like the case that they'd end up paying more of the tariffs, because they can neither reduce production nor absorb the output domestically, which leaves lowering prices to try to sustain the same volume.
> In three years at the most, these tariffs are done.
That's not happened the last time. Trump was out for four years and Biden kept a lot of the tariffs.
> Manufacturing jobs continue to decline, as they have since the election.
"Manufacturing jobs" are a talking point but were never really going to happen. The only way the US is actually going to compete is by increasing automation, which doesn't do much for "manufacturing jobs". But it does get the manufacturing into the same timezone as the people designing the products to prevent those jobs from going next, keep the knowhow of production active domestically, reduce dependence on China, etc.
This is a graph showing that construction spending on manufacturing in the US is more than double what it was a decade ago and trending only slightly down from the all-time high in the period trailing when the COVID money ran out and the Fed started to raise interest rates.
This sounds like the case that they'd end up paying more of the tariffs, because they can neither reduce production nor absorb the output domestically, which leaves lowering prices to try to sustain the same volume.
> In three years at the most, these tariffs are done.
That's not happened the last time. Trump was out for four years and Biden kept a lot of the tariffs.
> Manufacturing jobs continue to decline, as they have since the election.
"Manufacturing jobs" are a talking point but were never really going to happen. The only way the US is actually going to compete is by increasing automation, which doesn't do much for "manufacturing jobs". But it does get the manufacturing into the same timezone as the people designing the products to prevent those jobs from going next, keep the knowhow of production active domestically, reduce dependence on China, etc.
> https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/TLMFGCONS
This is a graph showing that construction spending on manufacturing in the US is more than double what it was a decade ago and trending only slightly down from the all-time high in the period trailing when the COVID money ran out and the Fed started to raise interest rates.